Monday, January 2, 2012

Democracy's Lament: The Theory that Policy Achievements are Useless

Democracy's Lament: The Theory that Policy Achievements are Useless
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 3, 2011

Summary: Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen are in a tug of war. Observers are puzzled. They are trying to understand voter sentiment by examining the candidates' character, the accuracy of the polls, the voters' political coloration, and the rival political parties' campaign strategies. One of the most peculiar explanations for voter sentiment is Taichung City Mayor Jason Hu's "Policy Achievements are Useless Theory," which concludes that voters really do not care about the candidate's record of policy achievements.

Full Text Below:

Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen are in a tug of war. Observers are puzzled. They are trying to understand voter sentiment by examining the candidates' character, the accuracy of the polls, the voters' political coloration, and the rival political parties' campaign strategies. One of the most peculiar explanations for voter sentiment is Taichung City Mayor Jason Hu's "Policy Achievements are Useless Theory," which concludes that voters really do not care about the candidate's record of policy achievements.

Jason Hu's theory is based on his own experience as mayor last year, and on Ma Ying-jeou's lack of momentum this year. These led him to his current "Policy Achievements are Useless Theory." He says elections today are perverse, Voters turn a blind eye to performance. In the past, if a candidate's past performance was good, he stood a good chance of being reelected. But voters today are "unmoved" by a candidate's policy achievements. Consider Ma and Tsai for example. One of them has a glowing record of policy achievements. The other has absolutely nothing to show for her years in office. Yet a majority of the voters perceive "no difference" between the two.

Hu's interpretation, his personal experience, and his subjective judgments, are not necessarily accurate. But judging by the current campaign, this "Policy Achievements are Useless Theory" contains more than a kernel of truth. No matter how much President Ma does, no matter how his administration's policy path has benefited Taiwan, many voters simply do not care. In other words, amidst Blue vs. Green political rivalry, party loyalty far outweighs concern for policy achievements. An infamous Green Camp expression, "Even though our bellies may be empty, we still intend to vote for Ah-Bian" is the best evidence of this. The Chen family corruption scandals had absolutely no impact on voters' party loyalties. Swing voters meanwhile, became increasingly cynical. This was probably the biggest change for Taiwan's democracy.

Leave aside the question of whether Ma Ying-jeou or Tsai Ing-wen is more likely to win the election for the moment. If the "Policy Achievements are Useless Theory" is true, then what voters care about is not the candidate's performance or integrity. If true, what is the point of democracy on Taiwan? What is its purpose? What is its significance?

Leave aside the validity of the "Policy Achievements are Useless Theory" for the moment. Ma Ying-jeou has the power of the incumbency. Yet he continues to fight an uphill battle. This amounts to a wake-up call. Ma Ying-jeou has governed for the past three years. He has been harshly criticized not for his policy decisions, but for being "too wimpy," and for excessive concern for details at the expense of the Big Picture. On the one hand, this has not won him any fans in the Green Camp. On the other hand, this has lost him fans in the Blue Camp. Ma Ying-jeou earnestly aspires to be a "president for all the people." But his efforts have been for naught. Blue vs. Green polarization on Taiwan has not softened as a result of his moderate temperament. On the contrary, it has led to cease identifying with him. This is something he must consider.

Consider Ma's performance. President Ma promoted cross-Strait peace and negotiations. He enabled the ROC to avoid domestic struggle and provided it with international breathing room. He has obtained visa free treatment for ROC citizens in over 100 foreign countries. He promoted justice system reforms, residential tax reform, and even the abolition of tax exemption for military and civil service employees. He ensured stable development during the international financial crisis. These achievements may not warrant the term "brilliant successes." But compare it to the Chen era's Closed Door Policy, to its bull in a china shop diplomacy, to its endless domestic struggles, to its total inability to govern the nation, to its ubiquitous slogans. The Ma administration has at least put the country back on track. How should a normal political party govern? Are the voters "unmoved?" Do they wish to return to internecine struggles, to an endless succession of premiership appointments? Is that what the people consider "vitality?"

That said, a presidential election does not merely elect a national leader. More importantly, the electorate applies its collective intelligence during this political process. This is how the electorate establishes a sounder, more pluralistic society for itself and for the next generation. Democracy on Taiwan has undergone many changes. But Rome wasn't built in a day. Advances are followed by retreats. The road is strewn with tears. The fear is that people will not be able to withstand the heat, and will abandon the kitchen. That they will become cynical and lose heart. That they will conclude it "makes no difference" who wins. That they will conclude "crows the world over are equally black." Such disillusionment, such a loss of voters with minds of their own, is the greatest threat to democracy on Taiwan.

The "Policy Achievements are Useless Theory" is not a prediction, It is a curse. If people do not believe in performance, if politicians do not care about performance, then a political process without purpose will lead to nihilism. Democracy will leave behind only sadness. Tsai's policy achievements cannot be compared to Ma's. But let us compare them anyway. Let us compare the Ma administration's four years in office with the Chen administration's eight years in office. Both the quality and quantity offer concrete bases for comparison. The TaiMed biotech subsidies scandal has exposed Tsai Ing-wen's corrupt underbelly. She is no longer tabula rasa. She is no longer a dream candidate. Voters now have a basis by which they can assess the two candidates' character and integrity.

The current election appears calm on the surface. But beneath the surface, lurks frustration with the status quo and anxiety about the future. Will the future be better? The answer will not emerge from the mouths of politicians. Voters must subject the candidates' achievements and character to rigorous scrutiny. Only then can the future be better.

政績無用論:民主的詭異與哀愁
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.01.03 02:46 am

對於馬英九和蔡英文之間的選情拉鋸,外界都相當好奇,也試圖從人格特質、民調準確度、選民色彩及政黨選戰策略等方面尋找答案。其中最奇特的解讀,莫過於台中市長胡志強提出的「政績無用論」,認為選民根本不在乎政績。

胡志強是根據他自己去年市長選舉及今年馬英九的選情,推出「政績無用」的結論。他說,現在選舉很詭異,選民不看政績;以往候選人政績好,很容易勝出,但現在選民覺得什麼都「無感」。就像馬英九和蔡英文,一個政績如山,一個掛零,但多數選民卻覺得「沒差」。

胡志強的解讀,包含了他個人的經驗和主觀判斷,未必準確;但就選情觀察,這個「政績無用論」作為一種後設推論,卻隱然成立。不管馬總統做了多少事,他領導的團隊走的路線如何有利於台灣,許多選民就是不在乎。亦即,在藍與綠的競爭中,選民對政黨的認同強度遠大過對政績的認知。當年綠營那句名言「肚子扁扁,也要投阿扁」,就是最佳佐證。而歷經扁家貪瀆風暴,兩端選民的政黨偏好基本上沒有改變,中間選民卻變得更憤世嫉俗,這恐怕才是台灣民主的最大變數。

拋開馬英九和蔡英文的當選機率不談,如果政績無用論果真成立,選民要求的不是政績、關心的不是候選人的品格操守,那麼台灣民主追求的是什麼?政治目的和意義又何在?

不論「政績無用論」有幾分真實,對馬英九而言,握有執政優勢、選戰卻仍打得如此艱辛,自是一記當頭棒喝。事實上,執政三年多來,馬英九備受批評的,並非他的決策錯誤,而是他的性格過於溫和、闡述過於瑣碎與決策圈過於狹小;這一方面無助為他爭取到綠色選民的認同,另方面卻讓他流失泛藍的既有支持。馬英九心心念念要成為「全民總統」,結果卻力有未逮,台灣的藍綠對峙並未因為他的溫良恭儉讓而消弭,反而導致認同渙散,這是他應該深自反省之處。

事實上,若論政績,馬總統推動兩岸和平交流協商,他讓台灣在沒有內鬥煙硝中走出國際空間,達到一百多國免簽。他推動司法、住宅改革乃至取消軍公教免稅,並在國際金融危機中極力維持台灣的穩定發展。這些成績,或許稱不上是什麼光輝燦爛的成就;但若比起扁政府時代的鎖國,對外胡亂衝撞、對內惡鬥虛耗,治國無半步、口號卻滿天飛,馬政府至少把國家從脫軌失序狀態帶回正軌。對於一個正常治理的政黨,如果選民覺得「無感」,難道要重回內鬥連天、內閣連年更換的狀態,人民才能感覺到台灣的活力?

話說回來,總統大選不只是要選出一個國家領導人,更重要的是,全體選民從這個政治過程凝鍊更多智慧和理性。那樣,選民才能為自己和下一代打造更健康、多元的社會。回顧台灣的民主,今昔已有很大的變化;但這個進步的過程並非一步到位,而是有進有退、有恨有淚。最怕的是,人們承受不住選戰的腥膻與紛亂,而變得憤世嫉俗或灰心喪志,甚至覺得選誰都「沒差」,天下政治都一般黑。這種失去意志、失去主見的選民,才是台灣民主最大的威脅。

「政績無用論」不是一個預言,卻是一個詛咒:如果人民不相信政績,如果政治人物可以不在乎政績,那麼,失去目的的政治勢必走向虛無,民主將徒留哀愁。馬英九和蔡英文的政績,雖不等量,但仍可拿來比一比;馬政府四年和扁政府八年,在質量上都可提供更具體的比較。而隨著蔡英文治黨及宇昌案內幕的揭露,她已不再是夢幻人選白紙一片;在這個基礎上,馬、蔡兩人的行事風格也值得選民重新估量。

這次大選,表面上看似冷靜,深層卻掩藏著人們對現狀的無奈與對未來的不安。但未來會不會更好,答案不在政治人物的口號中,選民必須嚴格檢驗他們的政績與人格才行!

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