Monday, April 16, 2012

DPP Chairmanship Struggle: The Real Problem

DPP Chairmanship Struggle: The Real Problem
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 16, 2012

Summary: More candidates are seeking the Democratic Progressive Party chairmanship than at any other time in the party's history. Taiwan independence hardliners and Hsu Hsing-liang, who advocates "boldly going west," have long been polar opposites. But both understand the DPP. Both agree on one thing. They must prevent Su Tseng-chang from becoming the party chairman. If they cannot stop Su Tseng-chang from becoming the party chairman, they must at least rein him in. They must prevent Su from gathering strength before the 2016 general election and running for president.

Full Text below:

More candidates are seeking the Democratic Progressive Party chairmanship than at any other time in the party's history. Taiwan independence hardliners and Hsu Hsing-liang, who advocates "boldly going west," have long been polar opposites. But both understand the DPP. Both agree on one thing. They must prevent Su Tseng-chang from becoming the party chairman. If they cannot stop Su Tseng-chang from becoming the party chairman, they must at least rein him in. They must prevent Su from gathering strength before the 2016 general election and running for president.

This is the first party chairman election since the DPP was defeated in the presidential election. Tsai Ing-wen has no intention of seeking another term. According to party regulations, she has already succeeded herself. She cannot run again. In principle, Su Tseng-chang is the leader of another powerful faction within the party. Not everyone welcomes him as party chairman. But for him to become party chairman would be entirely reasonable. Yet opposition within the party is building. Attempts are being made to purge leaders with certain ideological positions and political paths, as are attempts to settle scores with rival factions.

Taiwan independence hardliners within the DPP are openly opposed to Su Tseng-chang. Without naming names, legislator Chen Tang-shan mocked Su. He said "If a candidate for President or Vice President is unelectable, he should give up. He should stop running." Former DPP chairman Yao Chia-wen openly criticized Su. He said "We do not think Su is sufficiently Taiwan-centric and Taiwan independence oriented." Others even urged Wu Rong-i and Trong Chai, two Taiwan independence hardliners, to join forces. That would prevent Su Tseng-chang from taking advantage of a split vote among Taiwan independence hardliners.

The Taiwan independence hardliners are at least up front about their opposition. They have wounded Su Tseng-chang. But the wound is merely a flesh wound. What could really cost Su the election is factional strife. This includes strife between the New Tide Faction and its opponents, and strife between Su and Hsieh. More important of all is the contest for the 2016 presidential nomination. The presidential election has just concluded. But inside the DPP, many argue that Tsai Ing-wen remains the DPP's best choice for 2016. Whoever becomes the next party chairman should not use the office to run for president. He should concentrate on party affairs. Hsu Hsin-liang is running for party chairman. But Hsu has made clear he is doing it "in order to support another presidential bid by Tsai Ing-wen in 2016." Tsai Ing-wen demurred, saying these were Hsu Hsin-liang's own views. But it probably represents the thinking of many party members.

Taiwan independence hardliners have considerable influence within the DPP. But they have yet to find a spokesperson of adequate stature within the party. For the time being, Su Tseng-chang need not worry. By contrast, factional strife has simmered for years. It remains difficult to resolve. Little wonder Su Tseng-chang rushed to the Taipei Detention Center last week to visit Chen Shui-bian. He hoped to moderate the backlash from Taiwan independence hardliners.

A pardon for Ah-Bian is one of the Taiwan independence hardliners' key demands. Su Tseng-chang may be forced to compromise. The Taiwan independence hardliners demand the founding of an independent nation. They demand "one nation on each side." Is Su Tseng-chang willing to accept such terms? For the Democratic Progressive Party, the 2012 presidential election was a baptism by fire. They finally understand. They finally realize their cross-Strait policy is their Achilles Heel. They finally realize it is the reason the party has been unable to win the presidency. The DPP must review its cross-Strait policy. This is the first party chairman election since the presidential election. If the debate between the candidates is over whether the Mainland is an enemy, then the party will be turning the clock back. It will be moving farther and farther away from a return to power.

From this perspective, Hsu Hsin-liang's candidacy has strategic significance. There is little chance he will be elected. But that does not mean his candidacy is without strategic significance, He can at least influence the agenda. He can make his political views heard. He can refocus the party chairman election on real issues, and not on historical grievances that can never be resolved. Taiwan is currently undergoing industrial restructuring. It is suffering from a brain drain and other pressing problems. When confronted with such problems, isolation is never an option. Besides, DPP leaders learned from the 2012 election that they must offer a pragmatic and reasonable cross-Strait policy, They cannot muddle their way through. Otherwise Washington, Beijing, and swing voters on Taiwan will never give the DPP a vote of confidence.

The next two years are critical for the DPP party chairman. He or she will lead the DPP in the 2014 Seven in One Election. No elections are scheduled for the next two years. The DPP must take advantage of this opportunity to transform itself and change its cross-Strait policy path. This is the Democratic Progressive Party's top priority. But those who understand politics know that anyone with presidential ambitions must not commit prematurely. Otherwise they will be embroiled in disputes over the party's future. They will invite problems prematurely. These problems obviously do not concern Su Tseng-chang.

Su Tseng-chang has garnered the most attention during the election, He has never relinquished his ambition to run for president. He is also among the DPP favorites for 2016. But Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen, his most formidable rival within the party, have hedged their bets on cross-Strait policy. When Su Tseng-chang registered as a candidate for party chairman, he declared that the DPP must "replace [cross-Strait] confrontation with dialogue" and that "the two sides must coexist and prosper together]. But he too proposed a "Taiwan Consensus" just as vague as Tsai Ing-wen's.

Su Tseng-chang as an individual, and the DPP as a party, are undergoing crises. If Su Tseng-chang caves in to the Taiwan independence hardliners in order to win the party chairmanship, the Democratic Progressive Party will squander this two year opportunity to transform itself. Su Tseng-chang as an individual will be unable to win over swing voters. He can forget about winning the presidency. Su Tseng-chang must strike a balance between Taiwan independence hardliners and swing voters. He must offer a pragmatic cross-Strait policy, This is also the key to winning the DPP party chairmanship.
   
中時電子報 新聞
中國時報  2012.04.16
社論-民進黨黨主席競爭背後的真正問題
本報訊

     這次的民進黨黨魁之爭,雖然號稱是史上競爭者最多的一次,但是了解民進黨的人都知道,無論是來自黨內極獨,或是主張大膽西進的許信良,這兩股向來勢不兩立的勢力,這次有志一同,參選都是為了「擋蘇」;即使無法阻止蘇貞昌當選黨主席,但是至少要達到牽制的目的,防蘇在二○一六大選前累積實力、趁勢角逐總統大位。

     民進黨敗選後首次黨主席選舉,蔡英文既無意續任,而且按照黨綱規定,她已連任一次,這次也無法參選;理論上,蘇貞昌應是黨內的另一位實力派領袖,角逐黨主席即使不是眾望所歸,也應是理所當然;相反的,黨內的反對力量卻來勢洶洶,其間有對立場、路線的清算,也有黨內的派系恩怨。

     民進黨極獨力量公開反對蘇貞昌最力,先是立委陳唐山不點名的批評,「有人選過總統、副總統,再怎麼選都選不上,應該放棄,不要再出來。」;民進黨前主席姚嘉文則公開批評,「我們不認為蘇貞昌是台派、獨派」;更有人呼籲吳榮義、蔡同榮這兩股獨派勢力要整合,以免蘇貞昌漁翁得利。

     不過,獨派耍的是明槍,只傷蘇貞昌的皮肉,真的可能會讓蘇貞昌中箭落馬的是黨內的派系恩怨。這包括民進黨反新潮流勢力,還有過去的蘇謝之爭,更重要的則是二○一六總統大位之爭。事實上,總統大選剛結束,民進黨內就有不少人放話,蔡英文才是二○一六最適合的總統候選人,這一任的黨主席應表明不角逐總統大位,專事輔佐工作。許信良這一次參選,表態是為了「支持蔡英文再戰二○一六」,即使蔡英文宣稱這是「許信良個人說法」,但這卻是不少黨內人士思考的邏輯。

     可以說,即使民進黨內極獨聲勢不小,但是只要他們還未在黨內找到實力派的代理人,蘇貞昌暫無後顧之憂;相對的,派系長年的恩怨及競爭態勢,反而難以化解,這也就難怪蘇貞昌上周急奔台北監獄、探視陳水扁,為的就是要先化解獨派的反彈聲浪。

     如果說「挺扁特赦」是獨派的一項主訴求,蘇貞昌未來可能被迫妥協,那麼,獨派堅持獨立建國、一邊一國的主訴求呢?蘇貞昌是否要照單全收?民進黨經過二○一二總統大選的洗禮,好不容易認清,兩岸罩門正是該黨無法登上執政寶座的最後一哩路,民進黨應該檢討兩岸政策,選後第一次黨主席選舉,如果討論的竟然還是要與大陸為敵,豈不是走回頭路,離執政之路愈來愈遠。

     從這個角度來看許信良參選的戰略意義,他當選的機會微乎其微,但並非沒有戰略意義,他至少可以透過公開談話、黨內的政見發表,將黨主席選舉焦點拉回當務之急,而不是停留在永難解決的歷史問題上;台灣目前有產業轉型、人才流失等種種迫切的難題,要面對這些問題,閉關自守絕對不該是選項。更何況,民進黨領導人該從二○一二大選學到的一件事是:如果未能提出一套務實、合理的兩岸政策及作法,只想含混過關,則從美國、對岸、乃至台灣的中間選民,都無法對民進黨投下信任票。

     可以說,未來二年的黨主席攸關重要,他不只要帶領民進黨迎戰二○一四年的七合一選舉,更要趁未來沒有大選的這兩年時機,好好對民進黨兩岸路線轉型定調,這才是民進黨的當務之急;但是,懂政治的人都知道,志在總統大位者,若提前投入這些黨內糾纏經年的路線問題,只怕會提前折翼,但這些隱憂顯然不在蘇貞昌的思維中。

     在這次選舉中,蘇貞昌最受矚目,他從未放棄角逐總統的鴻鵠大志,也是民進黨被看好的二○一六人選之一;但是到目前為止,蘇貞昌和他黨內最強對手蔡英文一樣,在兩岸政策一直採取模糊策略。蘇貞昌雖然於登記時宣示,民進黨未來對兩岸要「對話代替對抗,兩岸要共存共榮」,但是他提出的「台灣共識」,和蔡英文的說法一樣模糊。

     這對蘇貞昌個人或是民進黨而言,都是危機。如果蘇貞昌為了黨主席勝選向極獨社團妥協,形同是民進黨浪費了兩年的轉型好時機;同時,蘇貞昌個人也無法取得中道勢力的信任、更別想贏得大位;如何在極獨與中間平衡,並提出務實的兩岸主張,既是蘇貞昌的挑戰,也是這次民進黨黨主席選舉的最關鍵主軸。

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