A Third Ruling Party Change?

A Third Ruling Party Change?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 26, 2012

Summary: If President Ma hopes to save the day, and turn the tide, he can no longer hem and haw. Between 2000 and 2008, the DPP "won the election, but lost its direction." Its eight years in office proved that the "rectification of names" Taiwan independence route is infeasible. Ma Ying-jeou must stay the course. He must remind himself that "we lost the election, but found our direction." The KMT may lose the general election in 2016. Nevertheless it must create a well-thought out cross-Strait policy and ECA Roadmap. The big picture will not change in 2016. As long as his direction is correct, Ma Ying-jeou's historical legacy is assured.

Full Text below:

The U.S. beef imports and capital gains tax bills have finally passed their Third Readings. But the big picture in the legislature has changed.

These two bills are basically reasonable. But the ruling administration has grossly mishandled them. The result has been a disaster, and has dealt a serious blow to President Ma Ying-jeou's reputation. It has given the public a negative impression of hapless KMT cabinet members. Worst of all, the Lin Yi-shi corruption scandal has dragged in Wu Den-yih. The KMT's public image has taken repeated hits. One cannot help wondering whether a third ruling party change is in the offing for 2016.

The first hurdle the ruling KMT must clear is the 2014 Seven-in-One Elections. The key is the Five Cities Elections. The DPP is the incumbent in Tainan City and Kaohsiung City. The damage the Lin Yi-shi corruption scandal has wreaked upon the KMT's election prospects in southern Taiwan is inestimable. The KMT will not have an easy time winning back these two southern cities. It cannot afford to have its voter base reduced even further. Can Yang Chiu-hsing and Su Jun-pin hold down the fort? Can they maintain the Kuomintang's foothold in the south in 2016? That remains a giant question mark. In Taipei City, Hau Lung-bin's two terms are about to expire. He has no choice but to step down. Lien Sheng-wen has some name recognition. He may be a viable successor. Xinbei City has Eric Chu. But he may have presidential ambitions in 2016. He may replace the premier. He is probably thinking about how he can withdraw from Xinbei City. If Chu does not run for re-election, a successor may be difficult to find. Chu could be stigmatized for "eating out of one bowl while eyeing another." That could be detrimental to his political ambitions. If Chu is groomed for the premiership in 2016, that means the premier is already cannon fodder. Is that a plus or a minus? We really don't know. Taichung has Jason Hu. Hu is like the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dike. He has laid down his life for the cause. But the threat still looms. Frank Hsieh might stand for election. His relatively enlightened cross-Strait proposals could be a diversion. In the 2014 Five Cities Elections, the KMT will have a hard time winning back the two southern cities. On the other hand, they could lose the other three.

For the DPP, Hau Lung-bin's conspicuous absence, Eric Chu's staunch support, and Jason Hu's arduous vigil, are opportunities for a Green Camp comeback. One possible strategy is for Su Tseng-chang to take Xinbei City, and Tsai Ing-wen to take Taipei City. This could build Democratic Progressive Party momentum over all of Taiwan. The two could run for mayor during the first stage. In 2016, during the second stage, they could enter the presidential race. This would not present a problem. Their supporters would support such a two-stage strategy. If the Democratic Progressive Party adopts this strategy, the KMT will find it difficult to parry.

Now take the 2016 general election. Wu Den-yih has been dragged into the Lin Yi-shi corruption scandal. The truth has yet to fully emerge. But Wu's integrity has already been cast in doubt. Wu's response so far shows that if he hopes to climb the political ladder, he must work on his deportment, his speech, his image, his rhetoric, and his logic. If Wu loses his footing, the KMT's bid for the presidency in 2016 will be even more difficult. The KMT's candidates for president and vice president in 2016 may be late bloomers. They may lack a firm footing in the community.

By contrast, the DPP's candidates for 2016 are already finalized. It will either be Su Tseng-chang or Tsai Ing-wen. Wang Jin-pyng has paid a late night visit to Tsai Ing-wen. Yao Li-ming has joined the Xiao Ying Foundation. The DPP has put popular approval ahead of internecine rivalry. Tsai has moved faster than Su. She also has a lead on potential KMT competitors. The DPP's problem is not with its 2016 candidates, but with its cross-Strait policy. If the DPP can forsake its outdated cross-Strait policy, a third ruling party change in 2016 is entirely possible.

The U.S. beef imports bill, the capital gains tax bill, and the gasoline and electricity rate hike bill are all reasonable and legitimate bills. Rebels within the KMT sabotaged the party from within. They thought they were merely bickering within the party. They thought they were merely provoking a tempest in a teapot. But their meaningless infighting created a grossly misleading impression of "Ma Ying-jeou incompetence." It exacted a terrible social cost. It made many people contemptuous and resentful of the KMT. In 2016 the KMT candidates will be late bloomers. They will undergo a difficult birth. The party may have trouble undoing the negative impression people have of it. It may not be able to rehabilitate its image. It lacks outstanding candidates. How is it going to clear the hurdles in 2014 and 2016?

If President Ma hopes to save the day, and turn the tide, he can no longer hem and haw. Between 2000 and 2008, the DPP "won the election, but lost its direction." Its eight years in office proved that the "rectification of names" Taiwan independence route is infeasible. Ma Ying-jeou must stay the course. He must remind himself that "we lost the election, but found our direction." The KMT may lose the general election in 2016. Nevertheless it must create a well-thought out cross-Strait policy and ECA Roadmap. The big picture will not change in 2016. As long as his direction is correct, Ma Ying-jeou's historical legacy is assured.

會不會第三次政黨輪替
【聯合報╱社論】
 
2012.07.26

美牛案及證所稅案終於完成三讀，但整個政局的大勢卻已改變。

這兩個案子，皆是在本質上正當合理，但因執政團隊在操作上極度荒腔走板而致使下場慘不忍睹；這不僅造成馬英九總統統治威信的重創，更使國人對莫名其妙的國民黨團隊留下難以磨滅的惡劣印象。不僅如此，林益世涉及貪污與吳敦義被捲入烏賊戰中，亦皆使國民黨的社會評價不斷消損。二○一六年會不會出現第三次政黨輪替？

第一關是二○一四的七合一選舉，而五都的市長換屆則是關鍵。民進黨在台南市及高雄市的現任優勢不墜，而林益世案對國民黨南部選情的進一步傷害更不可輕估；國民黨不易贏回南二都，且亦禁受不起選票再趨縮減，楊秋興、蘇俊賓之屬能否撐住形勢，保全國民黨二○一六在南部的最低動能，誠是一個難題。在台北市，郝龍斌兩屆任滿退場，也許連勝文是較有民氣的接繼者。新北市的朱立倫，由於可能問鼎二○一六，亦可能是閣揆的替補人選，也許正考慮如何從新北市抽身；但朱若不選連任，不但接手者不易尋覓，朱立倫自己亦可能陷於「吃碗內／看碗外」的負面評價中，不利其進一步的政治生涯規劃。再者，若欲安排朱立倫從閣揆轉戰二○一六，但閣揆儼然就是砲灰，則究竟是加分或減分，其實亦是未定之天。台中市的胡志強，則有如以手掌捂住堤防破口的荷蘭小男孩，雖是捨命力撐，但決堤的危機仍在；例如，謝長廷可能參選，他的兩岸開明主張，也就成了聲東擊西。也就是說，二○一四的五都選舉，國民黨不易贏回南二都，但大有可能輸掉其他三都。

對民進黨而言，郝龍斌的出缺，朱立倫的強撐，及胡志強的苦守，皆是綠營反敗為勝的機遇。其中的可能戰略之一，是蘇貞昌戰新北市、蔡英文打台北市，以點燃民進黨在全台的選舉動能；至於二人若在第一階段選上市長，至第二階段二○一六欲再投入總統大選，似亦不成問題，至少其支持者應會支持「兩階段」的戰略。倘若民進黨採此策，國民黨將更難招架。

再談二○一六大選。吳敦義捲入烏賊煙幕中，雖然尚不知真相究竟如何，但對吳的形象已造成模糊及質疑的效果；再者，吳在這個階段的應對，顯示他若欲更上層樓，其儀態、談吐、形象管理、詞彙選擇，及思維邏輯等，皆有待基本訓練。吳的腳跟動搖，將使國民黨內競逐二○一六的情勢更趨複雜難測；此亦顯示，二○一六代表國民黨出線競選正副總統者可能「晚熟」，也就是在社會上立足定位的時間將可能不夠寬裕。

相對而言，民進黨的二○一六候選人可謂已經定案：不是蘇貞昌，就是蔡英文，而王金平夜訪蔡英文，及姚立明加入小英基金會，更顯示其社會經營已經先於黨內競逐；蔡的腳步比蘇快，也領先潛在的國民黨競爭者。民進黨如今的問題不在二○一六的候選人，而在兩岸政策；只要民進黨能走出兩岸政策的瓶頸，二○一六即極有可能出現第三次政黨輪替。

美牛案、證所稅案，及油電雙漲的「選後三案」，皆是合理正當的政策；國民黨內的造反派對三案扯後腿，以為他們只是在玩黨內「茶壺裡的風暴」，實際上卻是以莫名其妙的內訌，親手「製造」了馬英九的「無能」，並付出了可怕的社會成本，遂致多數人民對整個國民黨產生輕蔑與憤恨。面對二○一六，國民黨非但候選人恐將「難產晚熟」，且整個黨又不易扭轉社會的普遍惡感；若不能重建國民黨的整體形象，再加上缺乏亮眼優異的候選人，二○一四、二○一六這兩關將如何闖過？

對馬總統而言，若欲扶大廈之將傾、挽狂瀾於既倒，更無猶豫瞻顧、踟躕躊躇的餘地。二○○○至二○○八年，民進黨政府是「贏了選舉／輸了路線」；以八年執政，證實了「正名制憲」的台獨路線不可行。如今，馬英九則應抱持「輸了選舉／贏了路線」的破釜沉舟之決志，即使國民黨可能輸掉二○一六大選，也要在兩岸政策及「經濟合作協議策略藍圖」（ＥＣＡ Roadmap）上作出一個深耕厚植的框架；只要使國家大局大勢的路線在二○一六之後能持續不變、正向發展，馬英九或許也就差堪維持其歷史定位了。