Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Mainland Establishes Sansha City in the South China Sea, Japan to "Buy Diaoyutai"

Mainland Establishes Sansha City in the South China Sea, Japan to "Buy Diaoyutai"
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 31, 2012


Summary: The situation in the South China Sea and Diaoyutai is strange and turbulent. It is hard to tell whether one is at peace or at war. The biggest variable is Beijing. This enables Taipei to remain silent. But if the situation explodes, Taipei's position and its relationship with Beijing could become a major issue. Taipei has become the springboard for expressions of sovereignty on the Diaoyutai Islands, At any moment it could be caught up in the dispute. The above disputes now endanger national security. The ruling and opposition parties must not take the matter lightly.

Full Text below:

Mainland China recently established Sansha City in the South China Sea, to preside over Xisha Island, Dongsha Island, and Nansha Island. The jurisdiction of Sansha City was upgraded to the division level. Administratively this means little. Politically this means a lot. Not long ago Vietnam approved the Law of the Sea. It claimed the Xisha and Nansha Islands as part of its sovereign territory. It established an administrative region. The Mainland is merely reacting. Nothing more. 

The dispute between several Southeast Asian countries and Mainland China over sovereignty in the South China Sea is already burning white-hot. Recently fishing boats from Vietnam and the Philippines  clashed with fishing boats from Mainland China. Diplomatic disputes erupted during the Asia-Pacific foreign ministers' meeting. Tensions ran high.

Conflicts over the islands have led to complex interactions pertaining to sovereignty. The South China Sea is not unique. Many parts of the world have similar problems. Other regions have both peaceful negotiations and military solutions. But the South China Sea disputes have become the focus of world attention. This is due to the rise of China and the United States' return to Asia.

The United States recently announced its return to the Asia-Pacific region. Naturally this encouraged countries with South China Sea sovereignty disputes with Mainland China to take a hard line. They now refuse to compromise with Mainland China. they hope to the United States will chime in or even join the party. The U.S. may be happy with this development, but so far it has adopted a wait and see stance. Washington's stance on the South China Sea is to remain neutral, to not favor any particular party, to settle any disputes peacefully in accordance with international law, to safeguard freedom of navigation and aviation, and to support the creation of a Code of Conduct. The United States hopes to become the arbiter in the South China Sea and Asia-Pacific region. It does not want to be dragged into the fight by these countries.

The United States has a Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines. It has held joint exercises with the Philippines. It has even held a two plus two summit. But the Huangyan Island incident shows that the US is unwilling to commit to assisting the Philippines in the defense of Huangyan Island in the event of a conflict. The United States is unwilling to go to war with Mainland China over this uninhabited island. Reports are that when U.S. National Security Adviser Thomas E. Donilon visited Beijing, he made this clear.

Mainland China has also taken a hard line. It has made clear that if necessary, it will engage in another "Xisha Sea Battle." The establishment of the three municipalities drew a line in the sand, and expressed its determination.

Meanwhile the Japanese government and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government have threatened to "buy Diaoyutai." This dispute over the sovereignty of the waters is more complex than the South China Sea dispute. First of all, control in the East China Sea is not in Mainland China's hands. Japan's Coast Guard and Self Defense Force naval ships and aircraft have de facto control of Diaoyutai Island waters and airspace. Secondly, Japan is more powerful than the Southeast Asian countries. In an actual shooting war the People's Liberation Army would not necessarily prevail. Finally, the United States Japan Security Treaty includes the Diaoyutai Islands. The United States has reaffirmed its commitment to this treaty.

Japan and China have historical grievances. Their relationship is more complicated than the relationship between China and Southeast Asia. Past Japanese administrations have carefully avoided the Yakasuni Shrine and history textbook issues. But current Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's approval ratings are down. To divert attention from his own administration's problems, he has echoed Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara's call. He has proposed "buying the Diaoyutai Islands" and making them Japanese government property. When responding to questions in the Diet last week he said if other countries invade the Diaoyutai Islands, "Japan will consider dispatching its Self-Defense Forces." This was of course a response to recent tough statements by Mainland China.

The East China Sea situation is tense. But the US, Mainland China, and Japan are closely matched in strength. Therefore they will avoid military conflict. The South China Sea situation is unclear. If one misjudges the situation, one could ignite a powderkeg. This makes it even more dangerous.

The South China Sea situation is dangerous. Many people are calling for a halt to the incitement of nationalistic sentiments. Each of the nations should be realistic and shelve the issue of sovereignty. They should lower the temperature. They should consider joint development and resource sharing. Several governments are exploring the region. Taipei is not among them. It has been marginalized.

Taiping Island is the largest island in the South China Sea. The Republic of China has occupied it for over six decades. The island has runways and fresh water. It is strategically located. It is under the jurisdiction of Cijin District, Kaohsiung City. In recent years, South China Sea disputes have erupted, one after another. But no country or international forum has invited Taipei to participate in consultations. This is how matters stand. The two sides of the Taiwan Strait have proposed "cross-Strait cooperation in defense of sovereignty." But for Taipei, such moves could cause more problems than they solve. It must be extra cautious.

The situation is strange and turbulent. It is hard to tell whether one is at peace or at war. The biggest variable is Beijing. This enables Taipei to remain silent. But if the situation explodes, Taipei's position and its relationship with Beijing could become a major issue. Taipei has become the springboard for expressions of sovereignty on the Diaoyutai Islands, At any moment it could be caught up in the dispute. The above disputes now endanger national security. The ruling and opposition parties must not take the matter lightly.

大陸設三沙市 日本買釣魚台
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.07.31

中國大陸日前在西沙、中沙、及南沙群島設立三沙市,下轄的三沙警備區亦提升為師級單位,此一動作的行政意義小,政治意義大;其實,早此一步,不久前越南也通過海洋法,將西沙南沙列為主權疆域,設立行政區,大陸只是反制而已。

東南亞各國與中國大陸間,為南中國海主權歸屬,已進入白熱化的爭執,近來越南、菲律賓分別與中國發生漁船衝突、外交糾紛,甚至在亞太外長會議的會場上,亦見劍拔弩張。

犬牙交錯的島嶼引發非常複雜的主權關係,並非南中國海所特有,世界上許多地方都有類似的問題;但其他地區或由和平協商,或經強力解決,卻很少像南中國海的紛爭這樣時常成為全球矚目的焦點。這與中國的崛起有關,也與美國重返亞洲有關。

美國宣布要重返亞太,這自然鼓舞了與中國有南海主權爭端的國家,強硬起來,拒絕與中國妥協;想要「作球」給美國,或引美國加入賽局。然而,美國雖樂觀其變,卻亦止於靜觀其變,華盛頓對南中國海的原則是:保持中立,不偏向任何一方;依照國際法和平解決爭端,維護航海航空自由權,支持達成行為準則。美國希望成為南海或者亞太地區的仲裁者,不願被這些國家拖下水。

從黃岩島事件可以看出,美國雖與菲律賓有共同防禦條約,也與菲律賓聯合演習,甚至召開二加二的高層會議,但對黃岩島可能衍發的衝突,卻不願意承諾協防;美國不會為了這個無人島,而不惜與中國開戰。據說,近日美國國家安全顧問多尼隆特地訪問北京,就特別清楚地表達了這一點。

中國方面則姿態強硬,已經擺明必要時可以再來一次「西沙海戰」,設立三沙市的意思,就是在劃定紅線,表達決心。

與此同時,日本政府及東京都政府皆揚言可能購買釣魚台列嶼,此一海域的主權爭議,其實比起南海問題要複雜許多。首先,東海控制權並不是在中國手中,日本海上警視廳與海上自衛隊的船艦與飛機,事實上控制著釣魚台附近海域與空域;其次,日本的戰力比東南亞國家強大許多,真要衝突起來,解放軍未必佔得了便宜;最後,美國與日本的共同防衛承諾包括釣魚台,美國近日也重申此項承諾。

日本與中國之間的歷史情結,也較中國與東南亞複雜許多。過去幾屆日本政府,都小心翼翼的避開靖國神社參拜、歷史教科書問題,但現任首相野田佳彥支持率低落,為了轉移焦點,呼應東京知事石原,提出要收購釣魚台群島為國有,且在上週國會答詢時,更表示如果釣魚台遭到別國違法侵犯時,「必要時日本將考慮出動自衛隊」,這當然是針對中國近來數度強硬宣示的回應。

然而,東海情勢雖然看起來緊張,但因為美中日三國實力相當,大家都會小心翼翼,避免軍事衝突;南海則狀況不明,誤判形勢,擦槍走火的機會不小,反而更為危險。

面對南海凶險,許多人都呼籲不要再對民族情緒搧風點火,各國應該實事求是的擱置主權,放下爭端,合作開發,資源共享,目前各國還在試探階段,但台灣卻無從參與,被邊緣化。

中華民國在南海領有最大的太平島超過六十年,島上有跑道、淡水,是戰略要地,隸屬高雄市旗津區管轄,近年來南海爭議迭起,但沒有國家或任何國際論壇邀請台灣參加協商。在這樣的情勢下,台海兩岸都有人提出「兩岸合作共同捍衛主權」的主張,但對台灣而言,此類主張所引發的新問題,可能比要解決的舊問題更多,恐應格外謹慎。

在詭譎動盪、和戰難定的情勢中,主要的變數是由中國大陸掌握,這使台灣可以不須表態;但在情勢萬一破裂之時,台灣自處的立場及與大陸的互動關係,即可能立即成為重大難題。尤其,台灣已成兩岸三地對釣魚台表態的跳板,隨時都可能捲入紛爭。凡此,皆已成為「不怕一萬,只怕萬一」的嚴峻國安課題,朝野不可掉以輕心。

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