Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Something to Look Forward To: A Su Tseng-chang Visit to the Mainland, or a Wen Jiabao Visit to Taiwan

Something to Look Forward To:
A Su Tseng-chang Visit to the Mainland, or a Wen Jiabao Visit to Taiwan
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 4, 2012


Summary: During an interview with Vision Magazine, Su Tseng-chang said he would be  "willing to visit the Mainland as DPP Chairman, without preconditions." Su said that if Mainland Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao decides to visit Taiwan after stepping down, he would be willing to accompany Wen on a tour of Taiwan. This is a rare window of opportunity that neither the DPP nor the CCP should pass up lightly.

Full Text below:

During an interview with Vision Magazine, Su Tseng-chang said he would be "willing to visit the Mainland as DPP Chairman, without preconditions." Su said that if Mainland Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao decides to visit Taiwan after stepping down, he would be willing to accompany Wen on a tour of Taiwan.

This is a rare window of opportunity that neither the DPP nor the CCP should pass up lightly.

Wen Jiabao said he wanted to visit Taiwan, "even if he had to crawl to do it." If he is able to visit Taiwan, that will be a major breakthrough in cross-Strait relations. But if the invitation to Wen Jiabao came from the Blue camp, the DPP would vehemently oppose it. Fortunately Su Tseng-chang was the one who opened his mouth and volunteered to act as Wen's tour guide. Wen's concerns have been halved. Therefore, there is no reason to miss this excellent opportunity. Accepting Premier Wen's direct invitation to visit the Mainland may be awkward for the DPP. In that case, the invitiation could be made at the behest of Taiwan businessmen. When Wen arrives on Taiwan, Su Tseng-chang could then act as host, and show Wen around.

If Wen Jiabao visits Taiwan, the impact would be comparable to Lien Chan's "ice-breaking journey" to Beijing in 2005. Back then, Lien Chan was mending fences between the KMT and the CCP. Wen Jiabao's visit to Taiwan, with Su Tseng-chang acting as his tour guide, would be an opportunity for the DPP and the CCP to transform their inter-party relations.

This is a window of opportunity for the two parties. It enables them to engage each other publicly. Once Wen steps down, he can visit Taiwan as a private citizen. His nominal purpose would be tourism. Su Tseng-chang could accompany him as a tour guide. This would mask the political significance. A sugar coating of tourism would make it easier for both sides to swallow this medicine. The political benefits of such a visit cannot be underestimated.

For the DPP, superficially only the party chairman would be acting as Wen's tour guide. Yet such a visit could radically transform the DPP's "[Mainland] China policy." For the CCP, can Su Tseng-chang playing host to Wen Jiabao change the relationship between the two parties? Or will the DPP cling to its Taiwan independence dogma and refuse to deal with the CCP on a party to party basis? Will the DPP refuse to see the forest for the trees?

Su Tseng-chang visiting the Mainland would be harder than Wen Jiabao visiting Taiwan. Wen can claim that he is merely a tourist. Su by contrast, has no pretext to exploit. If Su Tseng-chang wants visit the Mainland, he will have to make additional preparations. Su said that if he visits the Mainland, he will not shout "Long live the Republic of China, Taiwan independence" the moment he steps off the plane. Su said the DPP is not like that, nor does he intend to act like that. Su Tseng-chang has always struck people as someone who "does not speak from the heart." His flippant remark did nothing to alter that impression. Beijing has never said "Long live the Republic of China." Su Tseng-chang has never said "Long live the Republic of China" even when he was on Taiwan. Su Tseng-chang said the KMT does not dare advocate "one China, different interpretations" on the Mainland. But how is this any different from Su Tseng-chang not daring to shout "Taiwan independence" on the Mainland? Su Tseng-chang clearly knows cross-Strait relations are a delicate matter. Yet he takes advantage of the situation to mock the KMT. He refuses to look himself in the mirror. As usual Su is "not speaking from the heart."

We feel that either Wen Jiabao visiting Taiwan or Su Tseng-chang visiting the Mainland deserve our support. Exchanges at this level will inevitably affect the DPP and CCP's attitude toward cross-Strait policy. In 2005 Lien Chan's visit to the Mainland changed the relationship between the KMT and the CCP. The "five prospects for peace" changed the six decade long cross-Strait relationship.

If Su Tseng-chang visits the Mainland. he can of course join with Beijing to offer something similar to the "five prospects for peace." He can strengthen relations between the DPP and CCP. But he could also discuss "one country on each side" with the Beijing authorities, face to face. He could also mention "policies the DPP is unwilling to forsake." He, the DPP, and the public on Taiwan, could then assume responsibility for the consequences. This would be more responsible than merely shouting "Taiwan independence" on Taiwan. Beijing need not refuse party to party contacts merely because the DPP refuses to forsake Taiwan independence and refuses to have party to party contacts. Instead, the two parties should use party to party contacts to deal with the Taiwan independence issue, face to face. Besides Su Tseng-chang made it clear beforehand that he would not shout "Taiwan independence!" right after stepping off the plane.

Change is fermenting within the DPP over [Mainland] China Policy. Su Tseng-chang chose this moment to raise these issues. He should take the DPP's transformation very seriously. He should not use Wen Jiabao merely to score rhetorical points. Su Tseng-chang said that Beijing has long maintained that Taiwan is a province of China. He said this was something the Chinese Communists maintained 30 years ago. It has not said this for a long time. He said Beijing now says that "the Mainland and Taiwan both belong to one China." But why is Su turning the clock back 30 years? Su Tseng-chang mocked the Ma administration, saying it dared not speak of "one China, different interpretations" in Beijing. He is apparently unaware that the Ma administration made its "no [immediate] reunification, no independence, no use of force" declaration. He is apparently unaware that it is the tacit agreement preserving the status quo between Taipei, Washington, and Beijing. Su may wish to accompany Premier Wen on a tour of Taiwan. Su may wish to visit Mainland China. But if Su thinks he can muddle his way through by cutting and pasting cross-Strait policy on an ad hoc basis, he has another think coming. He would be an ungracious host. He would be an unwelcome guest. Before he visits the Mainland or acts as a tour guide, Su Tseng-chang first needs to lead a cross-Strait policy debate within the Democratic Progressive Party.

Su Tseng-chang has put his cards on the table. Will Beijing dare to respond? Both sides of the Taiwan Strait can only wait and see.

樂見蘇貞昌登陸及溫家寶訪台
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.07.04

蘇貞昌接受《遠見雜誌》專訪說,他願意在「沒有預設任何前提下」,以民進黨主席身分訪問中國;而中國總理溫家寶卸任後若是來台,他也願意陪溫家寶看看台灣。

這是一扇難得開啟的機會之窗,民進黨及中共雙方皆應認真面對,不要輕率錯過。

溫家寶曾說「就是爬也要爬去」,他若能訪台,應是兩岸關係的重大突破。然而,倘是由藍營出面邀訪溫家寶,民進黨必定大力反對;如今既是蘇貞昌首先開口願任導遊,溫氏來台的顧慮即降低了大半,所以沒有理由錯失這個大好機遇。民進黨即使不便直接邀溫家寶來訪,也可通過台商等名義相邀;待溫抵台,再由蘇貞昌作東,陪著看看台灣。

溫家寶若能訪台,其效應可以比擬連戰在二○○五年訪問北京的「破冰之旅」;只是連戰操作的是重建國共兩黨關係,溫家寶來台由蘇貞昌擔任「地陪」,則將是民共兩黨關係轉變的契機。

這是民共兩黨的機會之窗。溫以卸任裸退的身分來訪,而以遊覽為名目;蘇則以「陪遊」的名義作東,掩蓋了政治色彩。這塊塗上「旅遊」甜醬的燒餅,兩方都比較容易下嚥;但其政治效應卻不可輕估。

就民進黨而言,表面上只是黨主席接待溫氏遊覽而已,但骨子裡卻必是該黨整個「中國政策」轉型的大考驗,甚至可能因此觸動了民進黨「中國政策」的大幅修正。另對於中共而言,倘不能藉「蘇貞昌接待溫家寶」作為轉變民共兩黨關係的槓桿,卻仍固執於「不放棄台獨/不可黨對黨」的教條,便未免見樹不見林。

相較之下,蘇貞昌訪陸比溫家寶來台不易。因為,溫有遊覽之名,蘇則沒有可以假借的名目。蘇貞昌若要訪陸,其政治準備顯然尚待加強。例如他說:若訪陸,不會一下飛機就高喊「中華民國萬歲,台灣獨立」;民進黨不是這樣,也不準備這樣。這一段話充分顯露了蘇貞昌一貫予人的言不由衷的印象。其實,莫說到北京不會說「中華民國萬歲」,蘇貞昌又何嘗在台灣說過「中華民國萬歲」?再者,蘇貞昌說,國民黨不敢在中國說「一中各表」,但這與蘇貞昌說不會到大陸喊「台灣獨立」何異?蘇貞昌明知兩岸之情勢微妙如此,卻只用來訕笑國民黨,而不知自我檢討,這豈不是言不由衷?

我們認為,不論是溫家寶來台,或蘇貞昌訪陸,皆是值得支持鼓勵的動作。因為,這種層次的訪問,必然會牽動民共兩黨在兩岸政策上的新思考與新方法;正如二○○五年的連戰訪陸改變了國共兩黨的互動,以「和平五願景」全盤改變了六十年來的兩岸關係。

因而,如果蘇貞昌訪問大陸,他固然可與北京一同端出「和平新五願景」之類的架構,重建民共兩黨關係;但其實他也可以當面與北京當局討論「一邊一國」,或「民進黨不能被迫放棄的主張」,然後與民進黨及台灣人民共同承當此一情勢,這也比「只在台灣喊台獨」來得負責。而北京方面,亦不必因民進黨「不放棄台獨」而拒絕「黨對黨」的接觸;而應以「黨對黨」的接觸,與民進黨一同面對面處理台獨議題。何況,蘇貞昌已有言在先:「不會一下飛機就高喊台灣獨立!」

民進黨內正在醞釀調整中國政策,蘇貞昌在此時拋出這些話題,應嚴肅面對民進黨的轉型問題,不能只想利用溫家寶來沾一沾政治口水。例如,蘇貞昌表示,北京一直說「台灣是中國的一個省」,但這卻是中共三十年前的主張,久已不彈此調,現在的說法已改為「大陸與台灣同屬一個中國」,則蘇貞昌何必偏要將中共拉回三十年前?又如,蘇貞昌調侃馬政府不敢在北京說「一中各表」,卻似未見馬政府「不統/不獨/不武」的宣示,儼然已成台美中三方維持現狀的默契。因而,無論要陪溫家寶遊台灣,或自己往訪大陸,蘇貞昌若想只靠他這些剪剪貼貼的兩岸論述來應付場面,不但作不成主人,也作不好客人。所以,在出訪或擔任地陪之前,蘇貞昌皆應先完成民進黨內的兩岸政策大辯論再說。

蘇貞昌已出牌,北京方面敢不敢接招,兩岸皆在拭目以待。

No comments: