Taipei/Tokyo/Beijing Golden Triangle: Vincent Siew's Mission Impossible

Taipei/Tokyo/Beijing Golden Triangle: Vincent Siew's Mission Impossible
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
August 31, 2012

Summary: Former Vice President Siew has long devoted himself to economic diplomacy. He is well versed in the nuts and bolts of international economic cooperation. Promoting industrial cooperation between Taipei, Tokyo, and Beijing is a difficult and thorny task. It could be a case of "Mission Impossible." Nevertheless the public hopes it will succeed.

Full Text below:

Former Vice President Vincent Siew is President Ma's highest ranking policy advisor. Last week he led a delegation from the Ministry of Economic Affairs to Japan. His goal? To promote Taipei/Tokyo industrial cooperation. He floated the concept of a Taipei/Tokyo/Beijing "Golden Triangle" to politicians and businessmen. Diplomatic fires continue to burn over the Diaoyutai Islands conflict. They underscore the purpose of this veteran official's visit.

Taipei/Tokyo industrial cooperation has a long history. It began in the 1960s. Three way Tokyo/Taipei/Washington trade became the so-called "flying geese formation." It became Japan's model for the vertical division of East Asian industry. During the 1980s the Japanese Yen appreciated sharply. Taiwan became the stronghold for Japanese industrial outsourcing. Beneficial cooperation increased. During the 1990s Mainland China's economy began to rise. Taipei/Tokyo industrial cooperation underwent a substantial change. Four way Tokyo/Taipei/Beijing/Washington trade gradually replaced three way Tokyo/Taipei/Washington trade. Nevertheless, private sector Taipei/Tokyo cooperation never ceased. Bilateral economic and trade relations remain close.

The global economic situation is changing rapidly. Taipei and Tokyo must establish a new mode for industrial cooperation. One. South Korea's industrial competitiveness has improved rapidly. Samsung has surpassed Japan and is catching up with the US. It is a powerful threat to Taiwan and Japan in the global market. Taiwan's industrial strengths are in manufacturing and in midstream and downstream marketing. It is relatively lacking in brand building and upstream technology and innovation. Japan has international brands and leading-edge technology. But its markets are conservative and relatively closed. Therefore, each side can make up for the other's shortcomings. This will significantly enhance their international competitiveness, and enable them to resist the "Korean wave."

Two. The Yen has sharply appreciated in recent years. The financial tsunami erupted in 2008. The Yen appreciated nearly 40% against the U.S. dollar., This greatly reduced the competitiveness of Japanese exports. Japanese businesses were put to the test. Last year's March 11 earthquake interrupted industrial production and disrupted the supply chain. This taught everyone a lesson. It strengthened international cooperation and the outsourcing of production. Now take Taiwan. Taiwan businessmen had an OEM export model that relied on the Mainland for production. The financial tsunami made this model obsolete. Industrial transformation and upgrading became imperative. Industry on Taiwan and Japan are strengthening cooperation and investment. This is mutually beneficial and absolutely essential.

Three. The Chinese Mainland has risen economically. The Asian and global economies are growing. Taipei and Beijing have signed ECFA. They have enlarged the cross-Strait economic and trade development niche. But Taipei must also synchronize and increase industrial cooperation with its major trading partners. It must avoid over-reliance on a single market. Tokyo may clash with Beijing over who will dominate Asian economic development. But it cannot ignore the vast business opportunities in the Mainland market. Therefore if industry on Taiwan and Japan can work together to develop the Mainland market, they can complement each other. Each can get what it needs.

These are all important considerations. Before former Vice President Vincent Siew stepped down, he called for the establishment of a "Taipei/Tokyo Industrial and Economic Platform" to accelerate industry consolidation between Taiwan and Japan. This would create a win-win situation. ECFA would add to this advantage. The formation of a Golden Triangle consolidating industry between Taipei/Tokyo/Beijing would create a win-win-win situation. In late June the United Daily News Group sponsored a summit, "Two Critical Years -- Blazing a Trail for Taiwan's Economy." Former Vice President Siew served as chief moderator. During his closing remarks Siew reached some specific conclusions. He called on the government to create a new cooperation platform between Taipei and Tokyo -- within three months. The government is now echoing the United Daily News Group's recommendations. It is taking a clear course of action. Vincent Siew is walking the walk. This is a laudable achievement.

Industrial cooperation between Taipei and Tokyo requires translating the Taipei/Tokyo/Beijing "Golden Triangle" concept into action. Three major difficulties must be overcome.

The first difficulty is economic. Past industry cooperation between Taipei and Tokyo or between Taipei and Beijing, basically amounted to a vertical division of labor. But the future will involve a horizontal division of labor and mutual investments. Therefore industry competition will increase as well. Tokyo and Beijing are competing to be the head of the Asian economy. Establishing win-win and win-win-win modes of cooperation will require considerable wisdom

The second difficulty is cultural. Japan is conservative and cautious. This is true of its government, its business practices, and its national character. Everything is done by the book. This is at odds with Taiwan and the Mainland, with their emphasis on decisiveness and speed. This inevitably affects the effectiveness of cooperation. The listing of Hon Hai shares in Japan encountered numerous obstacles. This reflects the vast differences in corporate culture.

The third difficulty is political. Strengthening economic cooperation requires good diplomatic relations and a favorable political atmosphere. The diplomatic fires set by the Diaoyutai Islands conflict have undermined trust between Tokyo and Taipei, and Tokyo and Beijing. They reflect deep-rooted historical grievances and strategic conflicts between Beijing and Tokyo and Washington and Bejing over interests in Asia. They hamper efforts to promote cooperation by non-governmental organizations and industry. They prevent the Taipei/Tokyo/Beijing "Golden Triangle" from getting off the drawing board.

Former Vice President Siew has long devoted himself to economic diplomacy. He is well versed in the nuts and bolts of international economic cooperation. Promoting industrial cooperation between Taipei, Tokyo, and Beijing is a difficult and thorny task. It could be a case of "Mission Impossible." Nevertheless the public hopes it will succeed.

台日中黃金三角：蕭萬長的不可能任務
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.08.31

前副總統蕭萬長本周以最高顧問身分率領經濟部訪問團赴日本推動台日產業合作，並向日本政商界宣揚組成台灣、日本、中國大陸「黃金三角」的理念。在近來釣魚台外交烽火持續延燒下，更加凸顯老臣謀國的深刻用心。

台日產業合作源遠流長，從一九六○年代開始，日台美三角貿易即成為由日本主導東亞產業垂直分工的所謂「雁行模式」之典範。在一九八○年代日圓大幅升值後，台灣更成為日本產業外移的重要據點，合作益見深化。直到一九九○年代中國大陸經濟崛起後，台日產業分工形態大幅改變，日台美三角貿易也逐漸被日台中美四角貿易所取代。儘管如此，台日民間合作從未間斷，雙方經貿關係仍然緊密。

然而，全球經濟情勢快速轉變，台日間有迫切需要建立新的產業合作模式。首先，韓國產業競爭力快速提升，尤其三星超日趕美，在全球市場上對台日皆構成強大威脅。台灣產業強項在中下游的製造及行銷，但品牌及上游技術及創新能力相對欠缺；日本則有國際品牌及技術領先優勢，但在市場開發上相對封閉保守。因此，雙方若能截長補短，必能大幅提升國際競爭力，共同抵擋「韓流」。

其次，近年日圓大幅升值，自二○○八年金融海嘯爆發迄今，日圓對美元升值逾四成，日本產品出口競爭力大幅削弱，企業經營備受考驗，再加上去年三一一大地震產業斷鏈的教訓，因而加強國際合作並將部分生產基地外移，乃勢所必然。反觀台灣，在金融海嘯後，台商「以大陸為工廠」的代工出口模式亦日薄西山，產業轉型升級勢在必行。是以，現在台日產業加強合作及相互投資，不僅互利互惠，而且絕對必要。

再者，中國大陸經濟崛起對亞洲乃至全球經濟影響愈來愈大，台灣已和大陸簽署ＥＣＦＡ，擴大兩岸經貿發展利基，但台灣也須同步和主要貿易國家深化產業合作關係，避免對單一市場過度依賴。相對上，日本雖在亞洲發展主導權上和大陸有所衝突，但亦無法忽視大陸市場的龐大商機。因此，台日產業若能共同合作開發大陸市場，既可互補不足，亦能各取所需。

基於上述考量，蕭萬長在卸任副總統前即大力呼籲，要建立「台日產經總平台」，加速台日產業整合，創造雙贏局面，進而利用ＥＣＦＡ優勢，形成台、日、中「黃金三角」產業整合關係，創造三贏。聯合報系六月下旬舉辦「關鍵兩年─  ─為台灣經濟開路高峰會」，由蕭前副總統擔任總主持人，並在總結時作成具體結論，其中一項即要求政府在三個月內建立台灣和日本新合作平台。現在政府呼應聯合報系主張，採取明確行動，蕭萬長更身體力行，誠屬難能可貴。

然而，台日產業合作要作出局面，台日中「黃金三角」要化為行動，仍存在必須克服的三大難關：

第一個是經濟難關。過去不論台日或兩岸產業合作，基本上是建立在垂直分工需要上，但未來勢必轉向水平分工及相互投資，因此，產業相互競爭也必然同步升高，加以日中間更有競爭亞洲經濟龍頭的難題，要建立雙贏甚至三贏合作模式，須有很高的智慧。

第二個是文化難關。日本不論政府、企業或人民性格皆較保守謹慎，凡事按部就班，和台灣及大陸講求決斷及速成的特性，格格不入，故不免影響合作格局及成效。最近鴻海入股日本夏普一波三折，反映的正是雙方企業文化的巨大差異。

第三個是政治難關。加強經濟合作須有良好的外交關係及政治氛圍，釣魚台外交烽火不僅影響日台、日中的互信，而且反映出彼此間根深柢固的政治情結，以及日中乃至美中在亞洲戰略利益的根本衝突。這也勢必侷限民間經濟及產業合作的種種努力，並讓台、日、中「黃金三角」止於紙上談兵。

蕭前副總統長期獻身經濟外交工作，深諳國際經濟合作的三昧，今又努力為高難度的台、日、中產業合作披荊斬棘，即使是不可能的任務，國人亦共同祝願其終必有成。