A Storm-Tossed U.S. Presidential Race

A Storm-Tossed U.S. Presidential Race
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 30, 2012

Summary: An October Surprise has finally debuted, just before the end of the month. But it is neither a war, nor a scandal. Instead, it is a hurricane -- Hurricane Sandy -- headed directly toward the South, the Eastern seaboard, and parts of the Midwest, including several swing states that President Obama assumed were already in his pocket. It has added a wild card to an already tense election.

Full Text below:

An October Surprise has finally debuted, just before the end of the month. But it is neither a war, nor a scandal. Instead, it is a hurricane -- Hurricane Sandy -- headed directly toward the South, the Eastern seaboard, and parts of the Midwest, including several swing states that President Obama assumed were already in his pocket. It has added a wild card to an already tense election.

During an election year, most voters in the United States are concerned about economic issues. The Obama administration has yet to emerge from the 2008 global financial tsunami. The unemployment rate has reached 7.8%, and has become the biggest obstacle to Obama's re-election. Ever since the war, whenever the unemployment rate exceeded 7.5% during an election year, the incumbent has lost his bid for re-election. Over 23 million people cannot find jobs. Over 10 million people rely on food stamps to get by. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has invoked the same slogan as President Reagan. "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" Naturally this is striking a chord.

The voters have given Obama a chance. Four years ago, he chanted, "Change. Yes, we can!" He stirred peoples' hearts. He became the first ever black president of the United States. But Obama failed to display the same leadership and charisma shown by President John F. Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis. Nor could he convince the Republican-led Congress to support the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the way President Bill Clinton did. The bad blood between Obama and the House of Representatives prevented him from winning over members of Congress. Therefore his economic policies, financial reforms, and education reforms all stalled in Congress.

But he has an even bigger problem. Even if Obama wins re-election, he must once again face a Republican-led House of Representatives. This means four years of battles between the White House and the House of Representatives. History will probably repeat itself. Liberal newspapers such as the Washington Post and the New York Times have endorsed Obama on issues ranging from tax reform, health insurance policy, diplomacy, and immigration laws. But they neglected to remind readers that Obama faces the same dilemma on Capitol Hill after re-election.

Some say the 2012 U.S. presidential election is a contest between a spokesman for the middle-class, and a corporate CEO. Obama comes from a modest background, but he has made it to the top of the heap. He is able to interact with voters. His election meant that even a black man can pursue the American Dream. His "Forward" slogan is not as resonant as it was four years ago. But according to a Washington Post/ABC poll, he has the support of 60% of all women voters. He has the support of black, Hispanic, and Asian voters. He is still favored to win. More importantly, most polls show the Democratic Party in control of more electoral votes in the 11 swing states.

By contrast, Romney is an entrepreneur who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. He is distant from the people. But the companies he took over either turned around or doubled their profits. Do American voters agree that the country is moving in the wrong direction and needs a course change? If they do, he still has a fighting chance. Polls show 60% of the white vote supporting Romney. But the situation in the 11 swing states is not optimistic.

Does that mean Obama is a shoo-in? Not necessarily. Even these numbers may not be enough. In fact, the closer we come to election day, the more conservative election analysts and pundits get. They are no longer willing to come right out and say who will win the election.

Also, if polls determined the winner, Obama and Romney would not have to keep spending so much on "AirLand Battle Strategy." The two have been engaging in an air war on the Internet, Facebook, Twitter, TV, and radio. They have also been engaging in a ground war, mobilizing volunteers to go door to door. The amount they have raised has exceeded two billion U.S. dollars.

Finally, and most importantly, these are swing states. These states have a record of swinging back and forth. States that have swung one way in the past, are likely to swing another way in the future.

American voters seldom pay much attention to foreign policy. But the rise of Mainland China has become inseparable from the U.S. economy. Therefore, whether Beijing is "playing by the rules" and whether the United States should label Mainland China a "currency manipulator" became a theme in the third debate. Beijing has responded in a low keyed manner. Through backdoor channels, it sent a message to the two candidates. It also sent a message through other governments with close economic and trade ties with Mainland China. As a result, Obama and Romney cooled their rhetoric during the third debate. The world breathed a sigh of relief. As we can see, Beijing's influence is definitely growing.

Now consider Taipei's perspective. It matters not whether Obama or Romney is elected president. Any new development in US-China relations is likely to pose a major challenge to the Ma Ying-jeou government. ROC Representative to the US King Pu-tsung, National Security Council Secretary General Yuan Chien-sheng, and Secretary General of the Office of the President Timothy Yang, stand on the front lines. They and others must work together. They must ensure that the "iron triangle" President Ma proposed remains intact over the coming years.

在颶風中搖擺的美國大選
    2012-10-30
    中國時報

　「十月驚奇」終於趕在這個月底報到，但是既非戰爭，也非醜聞，而是颶風「珊迪」直撲美南、美東甚至部分中西部、包括許多歐巴馬總統視為囊中物的搖擺州，為已經緊繃的選情平添新的變數。

　毫無疑問，在大選年，美國絕大多數選民最在意的還是經濟議題。歐巴馬政府顯然尚未安度二○○八年爆發的全球金融海嘯，高達七．八％的高失業率成為歐巴馬尋求連任之路的最大擋路石。戰後以來，只要大選年失業率超過七．五％，沒有一位有意連任的總統能夠圓夢。在二三○○多萬人求職無門、一○○○多萬人靠食物券茍活的苦難時代，共和黨總統候選人羅姆尼提出當年雷根總統的同樣口號「你比四年前過得好嗎？」自能動人心弦。

　選民已經給了歐巴馬一次機會。四年前，他提出「改變。是的，我們能夠」曾經撼動人心，他也成了美國有史以來第一位黑人總統。然而歐巴馬既不是在古巴危機展現領導氣質與政治魅力的甘迺迪總統，也不是說服共和黨主導的國會支持「北美自由貿易協定」（ＮＡＦＴＡ）的柯林頓總統。由於歐巴馬與眾議院之間的關係不佳，也欠缺說服國會議員及溝通的政治技巧，因此，他的經濟政策、金融改革與教育改革都遭到國會的杯葛。

　更大的問題是，即使歐巴馬連任成功，他仍要面對一個共和黨主導的眾議院，這意味著四年來白宮與眾議院之間的惡鬥恐將歷史重演。當自由派大報《華盛頓郵報》與《紐約時報》相繼在社論中，從稅改、健保政策、外交、新移民法各個角度為歐巴馬背書時，他們卻忘了提醒讀者，歐巴馬即將在改選後的國會山莊面對相同的困境。

　有人說，二○一二年美國總統選舉是中產階級代言人與ＣＥＯ（執行長）之爭。的確，歐巴馬是一位出身不高卻力爭上游的成功者，而且能與選民互動並打成一片。他代表著即使是一位黑人也能追逐美國夢。儘管這次他提出「往前行」 （Forward）顯然沒有四年前的口號響亮，但是，根據《華盛頓郵報》與「美國廣播公司」（ＡＢＣ）的民調，他擁有六○％女性選民的支持，在黑人、西裔、亞裔選民之間，他也擁有較大的勝算。更重要的是，十一個搖擺州的多數民調顯示，民主黨也掌控較多的選舉人票。

　另一方面，羅姆尼是一位含著金湯匙出生的企業家，而且也不夠親民。不過，凡是他主管過的公司行號，不是由虧轉盈，就是獲利倍增。這樣看來，只要美國選民認同他所提出「國家走向錯誤道路，現在需要新方向」的訴求，他也不是全無機會。只是，民調顯示，擁有六○％白人選民支持的羅姆尼，在十一個搖擺州選情不容樂觀。

　這樣看來，歐巴馬豈不是篤定當選了嗎？也未必。首先，光憑以上這些數字是不夠的。事實上，愈是接近投票日，選舉觀察家與名嘴就愈趨保守，再也不敢鐵口直斷誰能當選了。

　其次，如果民調決定勝負，歐巴馬與羅姆尼也不用繼續花大把銀子，進行「空陸一體戰」了。為了大打網路、臉書、推特、電視、廣播等「空中戰爭」，並動員支持者與義工挨家挨戶進行「地面戰鬥」，他們兩人的募款總和已經超過二○億美元。

　第三也是最重要的就是，既然是搖擺州，就意味著這些州曾有搖擺的記錄。凡是過去搖擺過的州，當然也很可能再度搖擺。

　儘管外交政策議題向來不受美國選民重視，惟由於中國崛起已變成和美國經濟密不可分的重要因素；因此，北京是否「按規矩辦事」（play by rules） 與美國是否應宣布中國大陸為「匯率操控國」仍是第三場辯論的主軸之一。不過，一則北京低調以對，並透過管道傳話兩位候選人，二則北京也透過與大陸有密切經貿往來的國家與媒體發揮影響力，歐巴馬與羅姆尼在第三場辯論都降溫自制，讓全世界都鬆了一口氣。由此觀之，北京的影響力的確與日俱增。

　對台灣來講，不論是歐巴馬或羅姆尼當選總統，美中關係任何新的發展都可能形成對馬英九政府的重大挑戰，有賴站在第一線的駐美代表金溥聰與國安會祕書長袁健生及總統府祕書長楊進添等人的通力合作，才能在今後數年確保馬總統提出的「鐵三角」安若磐石。