Visa-Free Treatment from US: Win/Win Taipei/Washington Relations

Visa-Free Treatment from US: Win/Win Taipei/Washington Relations
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 3, 2012

Summary: The US has not expressed open dissatisfaction with Taipei's recent responses to the Diaoyutai issue. But US Department of State and Department of Defense officials were "coincidentally" unable to attend the US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference held in Pennsylvania. The United States is accustomed to using a two-pronged "carrot and stick" strategy. The reality is Taipei remains highly dependent upon Washington for arms sales. This is the key to Washington's future policy toward Taipei. The ROC government must assess its next step carefully.

Full Text below:

In late 2011, the Republic of China became a candidate for the U.S. visa waiver program. Yesterday U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attended a meeting of the Department of State Global Business Conference on Travel and Tourism. She announced that the ROC was now officially a United States visa-free program nation. ROC citizens would enjoy 90 day visa-free treatment from the United States. The United States has become the the 29th nation to grant Republic of China passport holders visa-free or visa on arrival treatment. Obviously, the policy decision is a win/win that will bring both sides benefits.

For the United States, the short-term and direct economic effects are surely the top priority.

As we all know, the 9/11 Incident occurred in 2001. In response, the United States Department of Homeland Security established a strict, multi-level visa review process. Its purpose was to prevent infiltration by terrorists. But it also led to a sharp decline in the number of people applying for a U.S. tourist visas. The 2008 financial tsunami brought a global downturn in the economy. The United States lost an estimated 900 billion USD in foreign exchange earnings and 500,000 jobs over the past decade. The United States share of the global tourism market also fell from 17% to 11%.

The Republican Party lost power during the last election. This was clearly due to the recession and the loss of public support. The US presidential election is now at a critical juncture. The current unemployment rate is much higher than even four years ago. It is an embarrassment. As a result, any moves to improve the economy have acquired legitimacy.

Recently the U.S. Federal Reserve announced another quantitative easing. In January Obama issued an executive order establishing visa and international tourist processing goals, a task Force on tourism competitiveness, and relaxed and accelerated tourist visa applications to increase tourism profitability. The Department of State and Department of Homeland Security must submit progress reports within 180 days. The most import measure increases the number of countries granted visa-free entry. It is estimated that if the U.S. tourism industry can return to pre-9/11 levels, it will be able to create 1.3 million jobs. The message is clear. Needless to say it became the government's primary consideration when changing its visa-free policy.

Nevertheless political factors cannot be overlooked.

Early this year, the Western Pacific Region became increasingly unstable. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak landed on Dokdo. This led to considerable discord between South Korea and Japan, two major U.S. regional allies. Mainland China and Japan clashed over Diaoyutai. This brought the two nations to the brink of conflict. It affected the U.S. government's regional and even global strategic posture. The Chinese Communist Party did not want any incidents before the 18th Party Congress. For the US, the maintenance of stability is an essential and rational domestic and foreign policy goal. The ROC has long been an ally of the the United States, Taiwan is also located in a highly sensitive geopolitical region. The visa free U.S. concession is not a high price to pay. But its benefits are enormous.

Naturally this action has great significance for Taiwan. Late last year the U.S. put the ROC on its list of candidates for its visa waiver program. This provoked suspicions that President Ma Ying-jeou was using the issue as an election ploy. It has increased the number of places the world over where ROC citizens enjoy visa-free or visa on arrival treatment. It was one of the reasons the Ma administration promoted "flexible diplomacy." Four years ago we enjoyed visa free treatment from 54 countries. The United States is now the 129th country to grant the ROC visa-free treatment. The government's approval rating remains low. This was undoubtedly a diplomatic shot in the arm.

In fact, visa-free treatment has another meaning. The world is increasingly globalized. Visa free treatment enables Taiwan businessmen to travel all over the world. It is also a safeguard. Visa-free treatment does not merely provide convenient access. Visa free travel documents also imply official endorsement.

Currently only 36 countries enjoy visa-free treatment from the US. The only other Asian countries to enjoy such treatment are Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Brunei. Add the Pacific region and only two more countries, Australia and New Zealand qualify. The symbolic significance of US visa-free treatment cannot be overstated. As previously mentioned the United States has sent a rare and positive message. The ROC still relies on US support to participate in international activities. This, naturally, is deeply valued. That said, this entirely positive view of Taipei/Washington relations may be overly optimistic.

Another piece of news emerged at about the same time. The US has not expressed open dissatisfaction with Taipei's recent responses to the Diaoyutai issue. But US Department of State and Department of Defense officials were "coincidentally" unable to attend the US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference held in Pennsylvania. The United States is accustomed to using a two-pronged "carrot and stick" strategy. The reality is Taipei remains highly dependent upon Washington for arms sales. This is the key to Washington's future policy toward Taipei. The ROC government must assess its next step carefully.
   
中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2012.10.03
社論－免美簽達陣 台美關係互利雙贏
本報訊

    　繼去（二○一一）年底獲准納入美國「免簽證計畫」候選國家名單後，隨著美國國務卿希拉蕊昨天在國務院全球觀光旅遊會議上，正式宣布台灣成為美國免簽計畫國家，未來台灣民眾不僅可享受赴美九十天以內免簽證待遇，美國也成為第一百二十九個持中華民國護照可免簽證或落地簽證通行的國家或地區。很明顯的，這項政策決定將為雙方帶來互利雙贏的效果。

    　對美國而言，短期且直接之經濟激勵效應，肯定是首要考量。

    　正如眾所周知，自二○○一年因九一一事件影響，美國以國土安全為由所設計的一連串嚴格、多層次審查之簽證處理過程，或雖得以阻止恐怖分子滲透，但也導致申請赴美旅遊人數急劇下降，再加上自二○○八年底爆發全球金融海嘯後帶來的普遍性不景氣浪潮，據估計美國在過去十年內至少損失了近九千億美元外匯收入，以及五十萬個就業機會，也讓美國在全球旅遊市場的占有率從百分之十七銳減至百分之十一。

    　事實上，共和黨所以在上次選舉中失去政權，與景氣衰退失去民心支持自然有關；隨著總統大選進入關鍵時刻，面對當前失業率甚至還遠高於四年前的窘狀，所有經濟「作多」之舉都取得了正當性基礎。

    　在美國聯準會日前再度宣布推動貨幣寬鬆政策之前，歐巴馬早在今年一月便公開發布一項「建立簽證、國際旅客處理目標、旅遊業與競爭力專責小組」的行政命令，旨在放寬及加速觀光簽證申請，以全力提升旅遊產值。據此，國務院與國土安全部必須在一百八十日內回報工作進度，其中，增加免簽入境計畫國家數量被列入最重要項目。據估計，美國旅遊業若恢復到九一一前的水準，將可創造出一百三十萬個就業機會；如此明確的正面訊息，自然成為政府在通盤調整免簽政策時的主要考量。

    　儘管如此，政治層面的因素也絕對不容忽視。

    　自今年初以來，西太平洋地區的國際秩序便出現愈發不穩的趨勢。非但南韓總統李明博登上獨島的舉措，在美國兩大區域盟邦（韓國與日本）之間引發高度齟齬，中國大陸與日本之間環繞著釣魚台議題所帶來的對峙局面，更在將兩國導向衝突邊緣之餘，牽一髮而動全身地影響著美國的區域甚至全球戰略布局。正如中共不希望在「十八大」前發生任何意外一般，「維穩」何嘗不是美國此刻面對國內外挑戰時，必須選擇的理性目標。更何況台灣既長期為美國隱性盟友，又處於高度敏感之地緣位置，拋出免美簽進行拉攏，也算是一個代價不高，但收益不低的做法。

    　當然，此舉對台灣自然也存在正面的意義。且不論去年底美國將台灣列入免簽證計畫候選名單後，便引發為馬英九總統助選的聯想與爭議；更甚者，由於擴大我國民眾全球免簽證或落地簽證待遇，本來即是馬政府推動「活路外交」的重要政策指標，在過去四年中，從起跑點的五十四個國家開始，如今美國將成為第一百二十九個給予台灣免簽待遇的國家，這對支持度仍在低檔盤旋的政府來說，無疑是一劑外交強心針。

    　其實，免簽證還有一層重要的意義是讓台灣更進一步地融進全球化之中，尤其是對全球跑透透的台商來說，這也是一大保障，畢竟免簽證不僅是提供出入的便利性而已，也意味著旅行文件間接地得到了官方的背書。

    　特別是，迄今其實僅僅有三十六個國家獲得美國免簽待遇，目前在亞洲只有日本、南韓、新加坡和汶萊入列，若計入太平洋地區，頂多也只再加上澳洲與紐西蘭兩國，因此美國免簽的政治象徵意義不言可喻。正如前述，這既是美國所拋出一項少見的正面訊息，對依舊在國際活動中仰賴美國支持的台灣而言，自然值得珍惜。不過，儘管如此，就此全然正面地看待台美關係的發展，或許也是過度樂觀了。

    　正如同時傳出的另一項訊息所指出，雖未明言不滿台灣近期應對釣魚台問題的舉措，國務院與國防部官員仍「巧合地」同時無法出席剛剛在賓州召開的美台國防工業會議；從美國慣用「胡蘿蔔與棒子」兩手策略看來，掐住台灣在軍售問題上高度依賴美國的現實，既是它未來對台政策的關鍵，恐怕也是我國政府下一步必須審慎評估應對之處。