CCP 18th National Congress Convenes: Challenge for Taiwan Begins

CCP 18th National Congress Convenes:
Challenge for Taiwan Begins
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 16, 2012

Summary: Strategic competition between Mainland China and the U.S. in the Asian-Pacific region continues to expand, especially surrounding Diaoytai in the East China Sea. Conflicts over the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the South China Sea islands continue to spread. Can Mainland China and the United States live together in peace? If they cannot, local Asian-Pacific conflicts will erupt, one after another. When the time comes, President Ma's strategy of "closeness with America, peace with the Mainland, and friendship with Japan" will no longer work. He will be unable to straddle the fence between Mainland China and the US. He will no longer be able to have it both ways. He will find himself on the horns of a dilemma.

Full Text below:

The Chinese Communist Party's 18th National Congress convened yesterday. Its emphasis has been "seeking truth from facts," and "scientific development" in keeping with the times. This was formally written into the Party Constitution as the party's guiding ideology. The CCP will be led by General Secretary Xi Jinping. It will use its economic achievements to consolidate its political power and public support. It will simultaneously will exercise its economic influence. This will be one of its chips in the international power game. It will be especially active as a leader in the Asian-Pacific region and international multilateral organizations and forums.

Xi Jinping stressed that the Pacific Ocean was big enough to accommodate both Mainland China and the US. During the coming decade Mainland China and the US will continue their coopetition in the international community. But US strategy is to contain Mainland China and prevent her from becoming the leading nation in the Asian-Pacific region. Mainland China will remain vigilant and prepared to respond.

Basically, Xi Jinping wants to consolidate the Chinese Communist regime, and achieve its national development goals. It wants to take positive measures to strengthen the Mainland's economic and military strength. It wants to adopt a multi-pronged diplomatic strategy. It wants to establish Mainland China as a responsible member of the international community. The United States is returning to the Asian-Pacific region. Xi Jinping is responding. He is applying a "military security and economic interests hand in hand strategy." He is using military confidence-building measures, a trade and economic win-win approach, and bilateral and multilateral interactions to gradually assert Mainland China's influence and leadership in the Asian-Pacific region.

In late 1978, Deng Xiaoping set forth his economic reform and liberalization measures. He said that for the time being a world war was unlikely. Mainland China should seize the opportunity to fully develop her economy. But Deng Xiaoping also stressed that by 2020 Mainland China and the United States would find themselves competing over strategic interests. Competition between the two countries in the Asian-Pacific region would increase. Therefore Mainland China had to prevent military conflict. Nobel laureate in economics, Robert W. Fogel thinks that Mainland China will undergo a transformation from a poor country in 2000 to an extremely wealthy country in 2040. Its per capita income will still be lower than the United States. But Mainland China's GDP will account for 40% of the world's wealth. This will far exceed the US's 14% share and the European Union's 5% share. The Wall Street Journal believes this economic battle is changing the world. It says Mainland China's "state capitalism" is clearly better than America's "liberal capitalism," and is clearly prevailing. The ranking of the world's superpowers is currenly undergoing a major re-shuffle.

Most analysts within Mainland Chinese, US, and Japanese strategic circles think the Asian-Pacific region has become the arena in which Mainland China and the US test their strength against each other. Both sides constantly stress the need to strengthen military exchanges and cooperation in order to deal with major regional and global issues. But in recent years the two sides have repeatedly clashed over economics and trade. The United States has refused to cancel export controls on high tech goods to Mainland China. Repeated military confrontations suggest increasing strategic competition between Mainland China and the United States. This shows that suspicions between the two remain high. Xi Jinping cancelled his September meeting with Hillary Clinton. This is more evidence that it suspects the U.S. strategic agenda.

Strategic mistrust between Mainland China and the US is increasing. Cross-Strait relations now face new and complex challenges. First, the United States is using "Air Sea Battle Strategy" to maintain a "strategic balance" in the Asian-Pacific region. It is actively strengthening military alliances among the United States, Japan, and Australia. Its target is clearly Mainland China. If Taiwan becomes part of this strategic array, can cross-Strait relations really continue to develop in a positive direction? Secondly, as Mainland China continues to progress, as its economic and military strength continue to grow, its international stature will grow accordingly, Taiwan must reduce the damage inflicted by internal squabbling. It must offer countermeasures in response to new challenges from the CCP and the international community. Otherwise, Taiwan is likely to be marginalized and be the loser. Thirdly, the conflict over the sovereignty of islands in the South China Sea will continue to escalate. Vietnam already has plans to seize Taiping Island, which is currently under the jurisdiction of the ROC government on Taiwan. If Vietnam takes military action against Taiping Island Mainland China and Taiwan must offer a military response. A militarily superior PLA could emerge victorious over Vietnam. If Mainland China takes advantage of the opportunity to occupy Taiping Island, can cross-Strait relations continue to develop in a positive direction?

Finally, the ruling and opposition parties have not been able to arrive at a consensus on how to deal with the Chinese Communist Party. The CCP's 18th National Congress stressed that the Mainland would continue to improve cross-Strait relations. But Xi Jinping to is adopting a "combined soft and hard strategy" to deal with Taiwan. He is promoting cross-Strait economic integration measures to peacefully absorb Taiwan in the future. He is building a deeper underlying structure and having a direct impact on the power base of the ruling and opposition political elite. How will Taiwan politicians react?

Hu Jintao's core thinking in dealing with the Taiwan issue was to proceed slowly but surely. It was predicated upon the notion that when the time is ripe, the fruit will fall. As long as the Mainland economy is doing well, it argued, the Taiwan issue be resolved naturally. But a power transfer took place during the CCP 18th National Congress. Healthy cross-Strait relations will require changes in the ongoing coopetition between Mainland China and the United States. Xi Jinping says the Taiwan problem is unlikely to be resolved as a result of improved cross-Strait relations. If the problem is dragged out and not resolved, it will create new uncertainties for the Mainland's perimeter security. Also the Taiwan issue will continue to be a pretext by which foreign powers attempt to contain Mainland China and to promote their China Threat theories. The United States and Japan will use Taiwan as an excuse to expand the scope of their security treaty. Their plan to establish an Asia-Pacific missile defense system can also cite Taiwan as a pretext. Finally, the persistence of the Taiwan problem runs the risk that Taiwan may split off. This will be a chronic drain on the energy and resources of the Mainland government.

Cross-strait relations have progressed from divided rule to positive interaction. This has not come easily. The two sides must treasure this. But strategic competition between Mainland China and the U.S. in the Asian-Pacific region continues to expand, especially surrounding Diaoytai in the East China Sea. Conflicts over the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the South China Sea islands continue to spread.  Differences between the ruling and opposition parties on Taiwan have increased, not decreased. Asian-Pacific strategic circles sense an atmosphere of tension. Can Mainland China and the United States live together in peace? Can they work together for the common prosperity of the Asian-Pacific region? Can they exercise restraint and overcome undue influences? If they cannot, local Asian-Pacific conflicts will erupt, one after another. When the time comes, President Ma's strategy of "closeness with America, peace with the Mainland, and friendship with Japan" will no longer work. He will be unable to straddle the fence between Mainland China and the US. He will no longer be able to have it both ways. He will find himself on the horns of a dilemma.
  
中共十八大閉幕 台灣真挑戰開始
    2012-11-16
    中國時報

　 中共十八大一中全會昨日登場，強調實事求是、與時俱進的「科學發展觀」，正式寫入中共黨章列為指導思想。以習近平總書記為首的中共領導當局，將運用經濟發 展績效，強化鞏固政治社會基礎，同時，積極發揮其經濟資源影響力，做為布局國際戰略籌碼，尤其是在亞太地區和國際多邊組織與論壇中，主動發揮領導角色與功 能。

　此外，習近平公開強調寬廣的太平洋，足夠容納中美兩國，未來十年間，中國與美國在國際社會上，將繼續維持「競合關係」，但是，對於美國方面意圖牽制，或延緩中國取得亞太領導地位的相關策略措施，也將保持高度警覺並準備應對能量。

　 基本上，習近平為鞏固中共政權，達成其國家發展目標，一方面採取強化大陸內部經濟軍事實力的積極作為；同時，也在外交策略上，運用「多管齊下」的方式，建 立中國在國際社會上負責任大國的地位；此外，習近平應對美國重返亞太的措施，是運用「軍事安全與經貿利益並進」的策略，透過軍事安全合作、經貿雙贏格局的 安排，採取雙邊和多邊互動架構，逐步展現中國在亞太地區的影響力與主導地位。

　一九七八年底鄧小平提出經濟改革開放 時表示，目前世界大戰打不起來，中國應把握戰略機遇期，全力發展經濟；不過，鄧小平也同時強調到二○二○年時，中美將出現戰略利益競逐的矛盾，兩國在亞太 地區的競爭將升高，必須提防引爆軍事衝突。諾貝爾經濟學獎得主福格爾（Robert W. Fogel）認為，中國從二○○○年時的窮國，正蛻變為二○四○年的超級富國，雖然屆時人均財富仍低於美國，但中國的ＧＤＰ將占世界的百分之四十，遠超過 美國所占的百分之十四和歐盟的百分之五；《華爾街日報》更進一步指出，這場正在改變世界的經濟戰，中國「國家資本主義」顯然要比美國「自由資本主義」更占 上風，而世界超級大國地位正重新洗牌。

　根據中美日戰略圈的主流意見認為，亞太地區已經成為中美戰略競逐的場域；雖 然雙方都不斷強調要加強軍事交流合作，以共同處理重大的區域性與全球性議題，但是，從近期以來的經貿糾紛、美國拒絕取消對大陸高科技出口管制，以及各項軍 事演習對峙跡象顯示，中美之間的戰略競逐矛盾有升溫趨勢，而這也反映出雙方持續互疑。習近平在九月間取消會見希拉蕊，即是一種對美國戰略猜疑的表態。

　 兩岸關係在中美戰略猜疑升溫的格局下，已面臨變數複雜化的新挑戰。首先，美國在亞太地區祭出「戰略再平衡」的「空海一體戰」構想，並積極強化美、日、澳軍 事同盟能量，挑明針對中國，而台灣若明確決定納入美國的規畫布局，則兩岸關係是否能夠繼續維持良性互動局面？其次，當中國大陸持續進步，經濟軍事能量增 強，國際地位愈來愈高的同時，台灣除了要減少內鬥內耗傷害，還要提出因應來自中共與國際新挑戰的對策，否則台灣將可能被邊緣化成為輸家；其三，南海地區的 島嶼主權爭議將持續延燒，越南針對台灣管轄的太平島，已經擬定奪島計畫，一旦越南對太平島採取軍事行動，大陸和台灣都將會有軍事反應；倘若共軍以優勢軍力 打敗越南，並順勢占領太平島，屆時，兩岸關係還能維持良性互動嗎？

　最後，台灣朝野政黨一直無法凝聚應對中共的共 識，同時，中共十八大政治報告雖強調，要確保兩岸關係發展的連續性和穩定性，但是習近平將對台採取「懷柔與強硬手段交織運用」的策略，並進一步推動兩岸經 濟一體化措施，為未來和平消化台灣，構築深廣的下層結構，並直接衝擊台灣朝野政治精英的權力基礎，試問台灣政治人物將如何接招？

　 整體而言，胡錦濤處理台灣問題的核心思維是，事緩則圜、水到渠成、瓜熟蒂落，只要大陸把經濟搞好，台灣問題自然解決。但是，隨著中共十八大權力換屆交班， 兩岸關係若要良性發展，首先必須面對中美競合關係變化。習近平的核心策士指出，台灣問題雖因兩岸關係良性互動緩和，但如果久拖不決，將給大陸周邊安全增加 新的不確定因素；同時，台灣問題將繼續是國際勢力對中國防範、牽制的藉口和手段，中國威脅論、美日擴大安保條約適用範圍，計畫建立亞太飛彈防禦體系，都以 台灣做為支持理由；此外，台灣問題的存在，就意味著台灣有被分裂出去的危險，此始終牽扯著中國政府的精力和資源。

　 兩岸關係的發展從過去的壁壘分治，到現在的和緩良性互動，確實得來不易，殊值雙方善自珍惜。只是，隨著中美兩國在亞太地區的戰略競逐升溫，而且東海釣魚 台、南海諸島領土主權爭議繼續延燒，以及台灣朝野政黨路線分歧不減反增等情況湧現，讓亞太各國戰略圈人士聞到一股令人不安的氛圍。倘若中美兩國不能發揮和 平相處、共榮亞太的大智慧，並運用影響力有效克制躁動因素，亞太局部衝突的發火點恐將會相繼引爆，屆時，馬總統「親美、和陸、友日」的平衡策略，不無可能 從美中左右逢源高招，淪入進退兩難困境。