Negative thinking Undermines Political and Economic Evolution

Negative thinking Undermines Political and Economic Evolution
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 6, 2012 

Summary: Taiwan must extricate itself from political and economic stagnation. People must change their way of thinking. They must reject pessimistic, confrontational, negative thinking. They must adopt optimistic, competitive, cooperative, positive thinking. Whenever they confront a problem they need to think more like engineers and less like politicians. To find solutions, people on Taiwan must not waste energy on unnecessary confrontation. Time is no longer on our side. If we persist in wearing each other down, the legacy bequeathed to us by our predecessors will be utterly squandered.

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Taiwan's economy faces a difficult battle. There is no assurance it will experience even a 1% growth rate this year. Politics is mired in quicksand. The only feature of democracy that survives is elections. How can Taiwan escape this political and economic predicament? We must examine the problem the structural level. We must consider political interaction and value systems. Only then will we find a solution. One key worth considering is Taiwan society's "Negative thinking."

A vigorous reform movement on Taiwan during the 1980s bequeathed us a democratic miracle. But the glory of the 90s soon came to an end. During the 21st century, Taiwan's democracy led to Blue vs. Green stasis. Social divisions led to an economic nosedive. The result was a permanent state of "non-consensus." This lack of consensus has spread from the political realm into the social, cultural, and economic realms. It has engulfed all areas of public policy. As a result, neither the Blue nor the Green camp is able to govern the country. Worse, Taiwan has become idle, wracked by internal conflict and economic stagnation, without even realizing it.

Youth unemployment did not begin today. Wages on Taiwan have been declining for over a decade. Taiwan has also had a problem with industrial upgrading. Many manufacturers have relocated. This shows that the doubts are real. But these problems have been forgotten amidst the fog generated by a decade of political confrontation. Is this the unavoidable cost of Taiwan's democratization? Possibly. Nevertheless we must attempt to stem the losses. We must correct our course. Otherwise, what will happen to Taiwan down the line?

So-called "negative thinking" refers to political attitudes that are fundamentally obstructionist, that restort to boycotts, and that engage in "opposition merely for the sake of opposition." If Negative thinking has a rational basis, it can play a positive role, as "checks and balances." It can prevent the abuse of power. It can prevent the derailment of the decision-making process. But if it lacks a rational basis, if politicians stubbornly engage in obstructionism, public policy will run into a brick wall. Even measures beneficial to the public will be stalled. The last ten years of political confrontation and economic stagnation are largely result of the latter. This sort of thinking is apparent during ruling vs. opposition party confrontations. It also manifests itself endlesslessly during confrontations between the executive and legislative branches. As a result, the confrontations within civil society are not much better.

Such negative thinking poses a serious danger. Those who engage in such negative thinking need offer no comprehensive solutions of their own. They need only trumpet their opposition. They find it easy to mislead the public. Take education reform. The public wants college admissions to be procedurally fair. But they ignore the problem of how to teach children to learn and how to ensure their competitiveness. Take U.S. beef imports. Politicians talk about imposing "zero tolerance" requirements. They pretend that science is irrelevant. They pretend that Washington-Taipei relations do not matter. Take the fourth nuclear power plant. The DPP flip flopped back and forth between building it and not building it. They avoided any discussion of how to obtain affordable electricy once nuclear power generation was eliminated. Recently some Blue Camp legislators have proposed changing the fourth nuclear power plant to a natural gas plant. But they said nothing about the 300 billion already invested. Will it be written off as a total loss? Take the Wen Lin-yuan controversy. Public attention is focused on a single, isolated case. But 30 or more households approve. What about their interests? What about the system as a whole? Have these been given the same consideration?

In recent years the economy has stalled. Many people are beginning to miss leaders such as Li Kuo-ting, Sun Yun-suan, and Chao Yao-tung. These were the men responsible for Taiwan's economic miracle. Many people miss their vision and boldness. Some say that these fiscal and economic wizards operated under the aegis of authoritarianism. They had more power to get things done. Some say if they were born on today's Taiwan, even they would be bound hand and foot. But lest we forget, these people were trained as engineers. Engineers are trained to be pragmatic when confronted by problems. That, coupled with their own life experiences and insights, enabled them to leave behind a legacy. Contrast that with today's political arena. Government and opposition leaders are mostly trained as lawyers. Their heads are filled with zero sum, confrontational thinking. Instead of thinking about how to solve the problem, they think about how to make the problem more difficult, lest the rival camp receive credit for solving it. Given such selfish reasoning, how can we possibly expect positive thinking about how to make the nation prosper? How can we expect anyone to face problems and solve them?

Recently the public has been debating retirement benefits for military veterans, civil servants, and public school teachers. This issue deserves greater attention. Why have salaries within the private sector been stalled for so many years? If we fail to lift low income people out of their poverty, but merely try to hold down high income people, the result will be a race to the bottom. The same is true of educational reform, which relentlessly held down elite schools. This did nothing to enhance next generation competitiveness. It merely prevented smaller schools from increasing their tuitions. As a result even salaries could not be increased.

Taiwan must extricate itself from political and economic stagnation. People must change their way of thinking. They must reject pessimistic, confrontational, negative thinking. They must adopt optimistic, competitive, cooperative, positive thinking. Whenever they confront a problem they need to think more like engineers and less like politicians. To find solutions, people on Taiwan must not waste energy on unnecessary confrontation. Time is no longer on our side. If we persist in wearing each other down, the legacy bequeathed to us by our predecessors will be utterly squandered.

「減法思維」扭曲台灣政經發展
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.11.06 03:17 am

台灣的經濟正面臨「保一」的苦戰，政治則陷入「民主只剩下選舉」的泥沼。要擺脫這樣的政經雙困境，恐怕只有從政治互動及價值思考等結構性因素去檢討，才有可能找到出路。其中一個值得探討的關鍵，是台灣社會的「減法思維」。

八○年代的蓬勃改革運動寫下了台灣的民主奇蹟，但經過九○年代的燦爛，廿一世紀的台灣民主卻朝向藍綠僵峙、社會分裂的歧路急轉直下。這種「無共識」狀態，從政治領域一直向社會、文化、經濟蔓延，乃至吞沒所有公共政策領域。其結果，不僅導致主政者（無論藍綠）的施政困難，更嚴重的是，把台灣帶向空轉、內耗、停滯而不自覺的境地。

青年失業並非始自今日，台灣薪資成長倒退也有逾十年的歷史，包括台灣產業升級的問題，在廠商大量外移時即是個存在的疑慮。但這些議題，在過去十多年政治對峙的漫天煙硝中，全遭到淹沒。就算這是台灣民主化的代價，時至今日，我們也該開始設法停損，思考反省修補之道，否則台灣的未來將伊於胡底？

所謂「減法思維」，指的是一種以抗衡、杯葛、否定、反對為本質的政治態度。減法哲學若是出於理性，它能扮演的作用就是積極的「制衡」，可避免決策濫權出軌；但若脫離理性，一味強調阻擋，其結果就是使得公共政策動輒碰壁撞牆，即連有利於民的施政亦無法正常推動。台灣近十多年來的政治對立與經濟停滯，恐怕是後者濫用的因素居多。這種思維不僅見諸朝野對立，在行政與立法部門之間亦層出不窮；影響所及，民間的撕裂對立也不遑多讓。

減法思維最大的危險，是它毋需提出一個完整的「解決方案」，而僅需擺出一個鮮明的「反對姿態」即可，這很容易形成誤導。以教改為例，人們全力要求入學制度的形式平等，卻把如何教導孩子學習和他們的競爭力拋在腦後。以美牛案為例，政治人物口口聲聲要求「零檢出」，假裝科學在此無用武之地，也假裝美台外交毫不重要。以核四為例，民進黨在建與不建之間來回擺盪，卻從不談廢核後的電力供應及價格問題如何解決；近期也有藍委為選舉而主張核四改為天然氣廠，卻不提投入的三千億是否就此付諸流水。再以文林苑之爭為例，人們在關注特殊個案之際，卅多戶同意戶的權益及整個都更制度的未來，似乎未受到等量的對待。

近年因經濟發展困頓，許多民眾都開始懷念當年締造經濟奇蹟的領航者李國鼎、孫運璿、趙耀東等人，懷念他們的遠見與魄力。有人會說，這些財經推手在威權年代從政，因此擁有更大的權力來推動政務，如果他們生在今天的台灣，恐怕也是束手無策。但別忘了一點：這幾位都是工程師出身，而工程師的基本訓練就是在務實面對問題、解決問題，再加上他們自身的歷練和見識，才能造就一番基業。反觀今天的政壇，朝野領導人都是習法出身，多半滿腦子只是零和對抗思維；遇到問題，不是思考解決問題，而是思考如何把問題弄得更難解決，不讓對手陣營得利。在這樣狹隘的杯葛邏輯下，如何產生福國利民的積極思維？又如何能面對問題誠摯解決？

最近社會在檢討軍公教退休俸的沸沸揚揚之際，更值得人們警惕的，其實是民間部門的薪資何以長年止步不前？如果我們不能把低薪資的一方拉上來，而只想把高的一方壓下去，結果只會一路倒向「比低」的後果。就好像教改一路打壓明星學校，其實無助提升下一代競爭力；而夙夜匪懈地盯著不許小店漲價，結果連薪水也漲不動一樣。

台灣要走出今天這種政經同步停滯的局面，必須改變現行的思考模式，從消極的、對抗的「減法思維」，轉向積極的、競合的「加法思維」進化。每次面對問題，只要能多一點「工程師精神」，少一點政客算計，以尋求解決為目的，台灣不必讓那麼多的精力浪費在無謂的對抗上。台灣已經時不我予，再互相消損下去，所有前人留下的傲人資產都會消磨淨盡。