Cross-Strait Victories are Won in Peoples' Hearts and Minds, not in Gambia

Cross-Strait Victories are Won in Peoples' Hearts and Minds, not in Gambia
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
November 19, 2013

Summary: Taipei has two urgent priorities. One. The DPP must swiftly reaffirm the Constitution of the Republic of China. It must not enable Beijing to cite Taiwan independence as a pretext to seek other forms of victory. Two. The public on Taiwan must have confidence and ambition. It must compete with the Mainland under a big roof concept of China. It must seek a win/win scenario and mutual prosperity.

Full text below:

At GMT+15, the Republic of Gambia severed diplomatic relations with the Republic of China. Several hours later, Beijing's Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying, "We too have received word from foreign media sources. Prior to this, the [Mainland] China side had no contact with the Gambian side." Slightly later, Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office stressed that "On the Taiwan side (i.e., the Green Camp) a number of statements have been made on this matter. We must prevent people with ulterior motives from using this to undermine cross-Strait relations."

Had this happened before 2008, the reason surely would have been "CCP sabotage." When the Republic of Gambia announced the severing of diplomatic relations with Taipei, it would have simultaneously announced the establishment of diplomatic relations with Beijing. Beijing would have viewed the event as another victory in the two sides' ongoing diplomatic tussle.

But Beijing had no part in the current Gambian development. It even worried that "people with ulterior motives might use the development to undermine cross-Strait relations." Beijing's Global Times noted that, "The two sides should not perceive this as a matter of winning and losing."Beijing said that if Gambia "hopes to use Taiwan's  'diplomatic relations' to seek compensation from the Mainland, it is unlikely to be successful." It is widely believed that Beijing will not establish diplomatic relations with Gambia. As many as 66% of Mainland netizens do not want the Mainland to establish diplomatic relations with Gambia.

Before 2008, the cross-Strait "diplomatic war" raged on. Beijing made every effort to eliminate Taipei's diplomatic allies. It viewed them as "cross-Strait victories." But since 2008, Beijing has turned away many of Taipei's diplomatic allies. Gambia has not established diplomatic relations with Beijing. It severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in advance. This is an exception. From a global perspective, the Mainland is becoming stronger. If Beijing were still determined to eliminate Taipei's diplomatic allies, Taipei would eventually lose. But as Beijing noted today, the two sides should not perceive this as a matter of winning and losing. It distanced itself even further, by underscoring that it learned about the development from the foreign media. It reminded Taipei not to allow people with ulterior motives to undermine cross-Strait relations.

Beijing clearly understands that at this stage of cross-Strait relations, continuing to eliminate Taipei's diplomatic allies is a no-no. Doing so would give serious offense to the public on Taiwan. Beijing understands that doing so would enable people with ulterior motives to undermine cross-Strait relations. Compare the current situation to cross-Strait relations before 2008. Compare the major differences, then and now. One. Back then Beijing was determined to eliminate the ROC as a rival in international and cross-Strait relations. It viewed the matter as a win/lose proposition. Now however, it wants to preserve the Republic of China and the Constitution of the Republic of China. Two. Back then Beijing was indifferent to the feelings of the public on Taiwan. Today it sees winning or losing as winning or losing the hearts and minds of the the public on Taiwan. Before 2008, Beijing perceived destroying the Republic of China as winning. Now it perceives winning the hearts and minds of the public on Taiwan as winning. It sees the Republic of China as the key to winning the hearts and minds of the public on Taiwan. 

Beijing said, "The two sides should not perceive the Gambian development as a matter of winning and losing." Beijing already realizes that the primany link, the only link between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is the Republic of China and Constitution of the Republic of China. To persecute the Republic of China would only break the link. To defend the Republic of China preserves the cross-Strait link. Hence Beijing's insistence on disassociating itself from Gambia's severing of diplomatic relations with Taipei, and other government's bans on the display of ROC national flags. Both represent Beijing's realization that it must not view eliminating or repudiating the Republic of China as a victory. That is why Beijing cannot allow Gambia to approach the Mainland seeking compensation. It cannot allow such ploys to succeed. Loosened restrictions on the use of the Republic of China flag, on the singing of the Republic of China national anthem, the use of the Republic of China national title need to be worked out as soon as possible. Beijing must expand Taipei's international space. Only this will reduce misunderstandings, both at home and abroad.

The Gambian development was a painful revelation for Taipei. Beijing does not view Gambia as a cross-Strait victory. Taipei should affirm this bilateral strategic understanding. Bilateral cooperation in international and cross-Strait affairs must go forward. Taipei must cease equating diplomatic allies with winning and losing. It must view winning hearts and minds as winning or losing. Whenever the one China framework is clearly disadvantageous to the Republic of China on the international stage, Taipei must strive for peace and balance within it. Whenever the one China framework becomes imbalanced in the international arena, Taipei must restore that balance through democracy and public support. Taipei must remain vigilant. Taipei must appreciate the value of the one China framework. Otherwise given today's international situation, more Gambias could spring up overnight. Beijing could declare that if the two sides are not seeking a win/win scenario within the one China framework, then it will revert to "diplomatic war" to score victories.

Faced with such a perilous situation, Taipei has two urgent priorities. One. The DPP must swiftly reaffirm the Constitution of the Republic of China. It must not enable Beijing to cite Taiwan independence as a pretext to seek other forms of victory. Two. The public on Taiwan must have confidence and ambition. It must compete with the Mainland under a big roof concept of China. It must seek a win/win scenario and mutual prosperity.

兩岸輸贏：在人心，不在甘比亞
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.11.19 02:12 am

中原標準時間十五日凌晨，甘比亞宣布與中華民國斷交。幾個小時後，北京外交部發言稱：「我們也是從外國媒體得到有關的消息，在此之前，中方沒有與甘方進行接觸。」稍後，北京國台辦強調：「有關台灣方面（按，主要指綠營）對這件事的一些說法，要防止一些別有用心的人，利用此事來破壞兩岸關係。」

試想：倘若此事發生在二○○八年以前，其原因必定是出自「中共的破壞」，且甘比亞在宣布與中華民國斷交時，也一定同時已與北京建交，而北京必將此視為兩岸外交角力的又一場勝利。

但是，此次甘比亞事件的實況卻是：北京並未參與其事，甚至顧忌「有心人利用此事，來破壞兩岸關係」；且北京《環球時報》指出，「兩岸無須論輸贏」，並指甘比亞「如果拿放棄台灣的『外交關係』，來找大陸要補償，今天是很難實現了」。再者，一般認為，北京不可能與甘比亞建交，且有六成六的大陸網友不贊成大陸與甘比亞建交。

在二○○八年以前兩岸「烽火外交」的歲月中，北京傾力拔除中華民國的邦交國，並以此「論兩岸之輸贏」。但二○○八年以來，卻有多個台灣的邦交國欲與北京建交被拒，此次甘比亞在未與北京建交下逕自與台斷交，遂成特例。也就是說，就世界大勢而言，由於中國大陸的綜合國力上升，倘若北京仍然「以拔除中華民國之邦交國來論兩岸之輸贏」，台灣勢必難以招架；但北京今日卻稱「兩岸無須以甘比亞事件論輸贏」，更極力撇清說「北京也是從外國媒體得知此事」，且提醒台灣「勿讓別有用心的人利用此事破壞兩岸關係」。

北京顯然知道：兩岸關係進入目前階段，「繼續拔除中華民國邦交國」之事是做不得的，那將嚴重傷害台灣人民的感情，且會「讓別有用心的人利用此事破壞兩岸關係」。此一現況，若與二○○八年以前的兩岸關係相較，其間最大的差異在於：一、往昔北京是以在國際及兩岸傾力否定及排除中華民國為「輸贏」，現今卻在某種程度上以維持「中華民國」及《中華民國憲法》為要務。二、北京往昔不知顧惜台灣人民之認知及感情，現今則以爭取台灣人民的感受為「輸贏」。也就是說：北京的兩岸政策，自二○○八年後，已從「打擊中華民國為輸贏」，轉移至「爭取台灣民心為輸贏」；而台灣民心在兩岸的主要「連結點」，即在中華民國。

北京說：「不以甘比亞事件論兩岸輸贏。」因為，北京已知，兩岸關係的主要且唯一的「連結點」即在「中華民國」與《中華民國憲法》。打壓，將使「連結點」斷裂；維持，始能保全兩岸的「連結點」。因而，北京在「甘比亞斷交事件」及「張懸國旗事件」中所持的撇清態度，均可謂是出自「不以消滅或否定中華民國為輸贏」的政治醒悟。因此，中共非但不能讓甘比亞「找大陸要補償」的詭計得逞，也須將關於中華民國國旗、國歌、國號、官銜的應對早日訂出鬆綁方案，並協力開展台灣的國際空間，如此始能減少、降低內外人士的誤解誤判。

甘比亞事件對台灣更是一個沉痛的啟示。北京不以「甘比亞事件論兩岸輸贏」，應是台灣值得維護的雙邊戰略默契。因為，雙邊在國際及兩岸實力上的消長已難逆轉，台灣自應從外交戰場上執著於邦交國數字的「輸贏」，轉移至爭取民意及民心上的「輸贏」。當「一中架構」在國際上顯然不利中華民國之時，台灣更須在兩岸之間力爭「一中架構」的和平與平衡。且愈是當「一中架構」在國際上失衡，台灣也唯有愈加依恃民主與民心來維持「一中架構」的平衡。台灣必須警覺，台灣如果在兩岸之間不知珍惜及維持「一中架構」，則依現今的國際情勢來看，可能一夕之間即會出現好幾個「甘比亞」；且北京屆時可能會說：如果兩岸相互不在「一中架構」上爭輸贏，那麼就再回到「烽火外交」去爭輸贏吧！

面對如此艱險的情勢，台灣有兩件生死攸關的大事：一、民進黨必須迅速回歸原原本本的《中華民國憲法》，勿給北京抓住「兩岸以台獨論輸贏」的口實；二、台灣人要有信心與志向，在「大屋頂中國」的「一中架構」下，與對岸爭共榮雙贏。