Tsai Ing-wen Will Pay A Price for Her Ignorance About the Mainland

Tsai Ing-wen Will Pay A Price for Her Ignorance About the Mainland
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 14, 2014

Summary: It is hard to imagine how a former MAC Chairperson such as Tsai Ing-wen could be so ignorant of the fundamentals of cross-Strait relations. Tsai Ing-wen's remarks clearly ring hollow. In the short term, her superficial and naive remarks are sure to worry the Mainland authorities. They are sure to cast a shadow on DPP-CCP relations, which have finally shown a glimmer of hope. In the long term, Tsai Ing-wen's mistaken grasp of the cross-Strait situation, and her misjudgment of the Mainland's position, can only lead to continued waffling regarding DPP policy reform. Swing voters will be disillusioned. Tsai Ing-wen's longed for electoral victory will be more distant than ever.

Full Text Below:

Not long after Tsai Ing-wen became DPP chairperson, observers expressed hope that she would take concrete action to promote DPP reform. But lo and behold, under her leadership, the move to freeze the Taiwan independence party platform would itself be frozen. She did not lead any mass protests during the Wang Zhang meeting. But she had an apparently change of heart. She refrained from stirring up any trouble. But she failed to actively improve relations. Worse still, some of her recent statements cast doubt on her political judgment.

Tsai Ing-wen has long been disparaged as "kong xin cai." This pun on her name compares her to water spinach, which is hollow on the inside. The implication is that she lacks substance. People want to know "Where's the beef?" She talks and talks, but presents no substantive policy proposals. Tsai Ing-wen of course considers the criticism unfair. But her nickname does have a basis in fact.

Tsai Ing-wen started out as a policy wonk and bureaucrat. Politically she was tabula rasa, a blank slate. When she became a politician, this gave her tremendous latitude in positioning herself. Add to this an image as a political maverick. Many political aides or self-styled "kingmakers" soon flocked to her. They offered to help her craft just the right political image, and deliver just the right political pitch. They knew full well that Tsai Ing-wen's political value lay in "creative ambiguity." That is why Tsai Ing-wen has talked a good game, shouted pretty slogans, and left the impression that she is championing a new political vision. In fact, her political rhetoric and proposals have always lacked substance.

Tsai Ing-wen hoped to craft a "Ten Year Political Platform," to change her "kong xin cai" image. She hoped to found a "Thinkers Forum," of old and new writers to discuss new ideas and methods. But her "Ten Year Political Platform" is long forgotten. Her "Thinkers Forum" merely muddled the political spectrum. Contributors' positions conflict and fail to offer any political appeal.

Unfortunately Tsai Ing-wen has abandoned the foundation she established and returned to the DPP. She has failed to learn from the past. She has forgotten the price she paid for speaking before thinking and speaking before doing. The key to any DPP return to power is cross-strait relations. On this she has reverted to her "kong xin cai" persona.

In a recent interview with "Tian Xia magazine," Tsai Ing-wen mentioned cross-Strait relations. She maintained that "The most important factor in cross-Strait relations is sustainability and stability." She added that "If both parties (DPP-CCP) understand each other better. they will trust each other more." That of course is true. But Tsai Ing-wen's next remark shows that the DPP remains unchanged. It is still looking at cross-Strait relations in terms of tactics. This includes its perception of the Mainland authorities' position.

In Tsai Ing-wen's mind, the Mainland authorities are simply gambling. They are simply placing their bets on cross-Strait relations. As Tsai Ing-wen sees it, the Mainland authorities were merely gambling during the 2008 and 2012 elections. They happened to bet on the Kuomintang. Nothing more. As a result, Tsai Ing-wen wallows in feel-good sentiment. She thinks if the DPP can win the next two major elections, the Mainland authorities "will come around and deal with the DPP. If they feel that the DPP is likely to win in 2016, they will automatically make the necessary adjustments." Tsai Ing-wen sees the matter entirely as one of trickery. She has decided that "Other parties will come around to whomever has the power."

Tsai Ing-wen boldly proclaimed that "We are confident we can maintain a strong relationship with [Mainland[ China in the future. Cross-Strait relations will not be affected in the event we become the ruling party." This is not entirely wrong. But the DPP must change its political position. If it does, and the DPP comes to power, it will have a political foundation for the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations. Only then will that foundation be solid. Only then can there be true progress. In the end, cross-Strait relations and Taiwan's ruling party must impact each other. The key is not which party the Mainland authorities lay their bets on. The key is which party can win the support of the public on Taiwan, and ensure the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations.

Politics depends on power. No one questions that. But for the Mainland authorities, politics remains firmly rooted in principles. Cross-strait relations still have a political foundation. Forgetting this or deliberately evading this, means ignoring reality and ignoring history.

Based on Tsai Ing-wen's remarks, her view of cross-Strait relations remains mired in "Who has the power?" This is why upon winning the party chair, the first thing Tsai Ing-wen did was promise to "win the election." She declared that DPP-CCP bilateral relations need not be based on the Taiwan independence party platform. This can be discussed." Tsai Ing-wen mistakenly assumed that an election victory, or the promise of an election victory, would make the Mainland authorities place their bets on the DPP. Tsai has completely forgotten what cross-Strait relations were like under the DPP between 2000 and 2008. Relations between the DPP and the CCP wre in a constant state of unrest. Tsai Ing-wen has also forgotten, during eight years of DPP rule, the Mainland authorities did not bets on the DPP merely because it was the party in power. Instead Chen Shui-bian's fickleness and betrayals resulted in cross-Strait relations hitting rock bottom, eventually leading to the DPP's loss of power.

It is hard to imagine how a former MAC Chairperson such as Tsai Ing-wen could be so ignorant of the fundamentals of cross-Strait relations. Tsai Ing-wen's remarks clearly ring hollow. In the short term, her superficial and naive remarks are sure to worry the Mainland authorities. They are sure to cast a shadow on DPP-CCP relations, which have finally shown a glimmer of hope. In the long term, Tsai Ing-wen's mistaken grasp of the cross-Strait situation, and her misjudgment of the Mainland's position, can only lead to continued waffling regarding DPP policy reform. Swing voters will be disillusioned. Tsai Ing-wen's longed for electoral victory will be more distant than ever.

社論－對大陸無知 蔡英文將付出代價
2014年07月14日 04:10
編輯部

蔡英文擔任黨主席沒多久，外界還在期待她作些「實事」，積極帶領民進黨轉型，但沒想到，在她領導下，「凍結台獨黨綱」的討論仍然繼續「凍結」，王張會期間雖然沒有發動群眾運動抵制，似乎展現了某種變化的契機，但畢竟這只是「消極地不再從事某些行為」，而非「主動積極開創新局」。更甚者，她最近一些言論，令人對她的政治判斷力感到憂心。

過去很長一段時間，蔡英文被批評為「空心菜」，意思是端不出牛肉，談不出實際政策。蔡英文當然覺得這樣的批評極不公平，但這樣的封號，實在其來有自。

觀察蔡英文真正成為政治人物（而非政策幕僚或行政官僚）以來，由於在政治上是一張白紙，品牌定位大有塑造空間，加上所謂的「非典型政客形象」，許多政治幕僚或者自詡為「造王者」群集在其身邊，協助她進行形象與政治路線的操作拿捏。他們深知，蔡英文的政治價值就在於「創造性的模糊」，所以一路走來，蔡英文總是喜歡說漂亮話，喊漂亮口號，看似揭櫫了新政治新願景，實際上的、紮實的政治論述與主張卻總是付之闕如。

蔡英文曾經希望透過打造「十年政綱」，來洗刷「空心菜」的名號，也透過創辦「想想論壇」，邀集新舊寫手，希望談些理念路線，只不過「十年政綱」早已被民眾遺忘乾淨，「想想論壇」的筆陣更是政治光譜混雜，立場互相矛盾，無法形成真正的政治號召力。

遺憾的是，蔡英文從個人基金會重新踏回了民進黨中央黨部，卻並沒有汲取過去的教訓，「嘴巴先於腦袋」、「說快於做」的後果，就是又在民進黨重返執政最關鍵的兩岸關係問題上，暴露了自己仍是「空心菜」的真相。

蔡英文最近接受《天下雜誌》訪問，談到了兩岸關係，她延續先前的基調，強調「目前兩岸最重要的，是發展持續的、穩定的關係」，同時表明（民共）「雙方多一些相互理解，增高雙方互信程度」，這些自然是正確的。然而，蔡英文接下來的發言，就完全呈現了民進黨本質上還是從「策略」的角度來思考、看待兩岸關係，包括大陸當局的立場。

在蔡英文心中，大陸當局只是從「賭」、「押注」、「押寶」的角度來思考兩岸局勢，對蔡英文來說，大陸當局在2008、2012年兩次大選，都是因為從「賭」的角度，「押注」在國民黨身上，於是，自我感覺良好的蔡英文認定，只要民進黨可以在接下來兩場大選中獲勝，大陸當局「會朝民進黨方向來調整。如果他們覺得，2016年最有可能贏的是民進黨的話，他們自動會去創造那個條件」。蔡英文完全從權謀的角度出發，認定「誰有實力，各方就會朝有實力的這方來調整」。

蔡英文大膽的說，「我們也有信心，將來可以和中國維持一個穩固的關係，讓兩岸關係不會因為政黨輪替受到影響」，這句話本來並不全錯，但關鍵在於，民進黨的政治主張是否有所調整，在民進黨一旦執政之後，兩岸和平發展的政治基礎是否還能存在、還能穩固，並有所進展。說到底，兩岸關係發展與台灣政黨輪替的相互牽動，關鍵不在於大陸當局是否對哪一個政黨押寶，而在於哪個政黨能獲得台灣人心支持，同時又能維繫兩岸和平發展的局面。

毫無疑問，政治當然是講求實力原則的，但是對大陸當局來說，政治還是講原則的，而兩岸關係的互動發展，還是要有相當的政治基礎的，忘了或是故意迴避這一點，那就是對現實的無知，更是對歷史的無知。

從蔡英文的談話來看，她對兩岸關係的觀點僅僅停留在「實力原則論」，也因為如此，蔡英文自然把她擔任黨主席的首要任務擺在單純的「奪取選舉勝利」，至於民共「雙方關係的建構，是不是一定要從台獨黨綱著手，這可以再持續討論」，因為蔡英文誤以為只要選舉勝利，或者有機會勝利，大陸當局就會轉而向民進黨押注。蔡英文完全忘記了，從2000年到2008年民進黨的8年執政期間兩岸關係、民共關係是為何動盪不安，蔡英文更忘記了，在民進黨8年執政期間，大陸當局並沒有因為民進黨掌權而對該黨「押寶」，反而不斷因為陳水扁的善變與失信，使得兩岸關係跌到了谷底，最終導致民進黨失去了政權。

很難想像，曾任陸委會主委的蔡英文對兩岸關係的政治ABC竟然如此無知。蔡英文的這些發言顯然是既短空也長空的，從短期來看，她如此膚淺幼稚的發言，必然使大陸當局心生警惕，好不容易微露曙光的民共關係，又將蒙上陰影；從長期來看，蔡英文對兩岸局勢、對大陸立場的誤判，只會讓她在民進黨轉型的課題上繼續曖昧模糊，最終只會讓中間選民失望，蔡英文所念茲在茲的選舉勝利，反而會離她更為遙遠。