Rise of Mainland China Requires Four Revolutions on Taiwan

Rise of Mainland China Requires Four Revolutions on Taiwan
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 8, 2015

Executive Summary: Academia Sinica member Chu Yun-han's new work, "Lofty Thoughts Amidst the Clouds" has provoked considerable soul-searching. He boldly proclaimed that the world dominated by the West since the 18th century has changed. The non-Western world, led by China, is rapidly rising. Taiwan must decide how to deal with this cataclysmic change. Recently the ruling and opposition parties have been arguing about whether to join the AIIB. Actually, that is no longer the main point. If we truly love Taiwan, we must join the AIIB. We must discard old ideas and respond to new realities.

Full Text Below:

Academia Sinica member Chu Yun-han's new work, "Lofty Thoughts Amidst the Clouds" has provoked considerable soul-searching. He boldly proclaimed that the world dominated by the West since the 18th century has changed. The non-Western world, led by China, is rapidly rising. Taiwan must decide how to deal with this cataclysmic change. Recently the ruling and opposition parties have been arguing about whether to join the AIIB. Actually, that is no longer the main point. If we truly love Taiwan, we must join the AIIB. We must discard old ideas and respond to new realities.

Put plainly, the benefits to Taiwan's growth from joining the AIIB far outweigh any disadvantages. One. Finance is the lifeblood of economic growth. The AIIB will undoubtedly become an important platform for economic growth in Asia. Taiwan has become a founding member. This will increase its international profile, provide it with an international forum and increased participation in international trade organizations. Two. The outlook for the emerging economies of East Asia is bullish. This is the world's economic engine. Joining the AIIB symbolizes of our willingness to participate in Asian economic integration. It gives us the opportunity to share in future economic growth.

Even more importantly, the AIIB supports the Mainland's "one belt, one road" international strategy. It provides financing for railways, energy, telecommunications, airports and other projects in countries along the way. It reconstructs a Mainland dominated international economic and trade system. The two complement each other. A "Greater China Economic Circle" is swiftly taking shape, and will greatly benefit Taiwan's economy.

That said, once Mainland China rises, and a "Greater China economic circle" takes shape, Taiwan industries will face direct competition from the Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore, and other Asian economies. Taiwan will face more severe job competition from abroad. We must see clearly. We can no longer assume that we have nothing to fear, We can no longer sit on our hands. Still less can we seal ourselves off from the world. Any attempt to do so will only relegate ourselves to the margins of the East Asian economy, and steadily lower our quality of life. We must understand the current situation. The government must work with the private sector to promote four revolutions to transform Taiwan and enable it to become a special link in the Greater China economic circle.

One. A production revolution. Industrial robots and the Internet of Things are progressing. A global "Industry 4.0" era has arrived. Industry 4.0 is not merely industrial robots replacing labor or services. It is the merging of the Internet of Things with Big Data. Under the Internet of Things, production will be fully automated, personalized, flexible, and self-optimizing. This new mode of production will increase production efficiency and reduce production costs.

This megatrend is favorable to growth. The electrical and electronic industry, precision machinery industry, and ICT have long been Taiwan's traditional strengths. if we can improve integration, adopt correct policies, encourage research and innovation, Taiwan should have no trouble catching the Industry 4.0 gravy train. This is something within our control.

Two. An educational revolution. Famed NTU Honorary PhD. Yang Tseng-ning thinks that students on Taiwan "have become lazy". His remarks provoked controversy. Hard work is important for young people on Taiwan, but thinking ability and creative ability are even more so. The 21st century is a dynamic environment. We must learn from the Scandinavian countries, where students are trained to think independently and creatively. Our rigid education system must be reformed. We must recognize each person's unique potential. We must provide them with the right sort of education. Education must be individualized, so that every child will be able to find his own way. The government must do better.

Three. A civil service revolution. The death of former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore set off a wave of "Taiwan vs. Singapore" comparisons. Many experts have criticized our civil service regime. They say this is what Taiwan most desperately needs to learn from Singapore. The admission rate for Singapore's civil service is only 2%. It is as competitive as Taiwan's. But the difference is after admission, the Singaporean government first sends these civil service candidates abroad to study. Only then are they admitted to the civil service. Also, salaries for civil servants in Singapore are exactly the same as in the private sector. Competitiveness and performance are the criteria for salary increases. Civil servants have incentives to use their initiative and get things done. By contrast, on Taiwan the longer you have been employed, the more you earn. We lack an appropriate system of rewards. Naturally we have cultivated a habit of ducking responsibility. Internet era government decision-making must be decentralized. Government officials must seize the initiative and address the problems. They must respond to the public, accept challenges, and solve problems.

Blue vs. green political wrangling has become the greatest obstacle to a sound civil service system. Ruling party changes often force even career civil servants to step down or be assigned to dead end jobs. This results in a lack of policy continuity, incites anxiety among the civil service, and renders them unable to concentrate on their work. Both major political parties should engage in soul-searching. They should establish a civil service system in which civil servants enjoy self-esteem, confident they can do their jobs without worrying about politics. Only then can planning be long-term, and lead to the transformation of Taiwan.

Four. A conceptual revolution. Taiwan society is too hermetic. The slightest mention of the Mainland evokes terror. Nothing is permitted.  Mainland investments are not permitted. Mainland tourists are not permitted. The STA is not permitted. The MTA is not permitted. All these things that are not permitted, are things that South Korea, Singapore, and others welcome with open arms. Taiwan, by contrast, shuns them all. Nor is Taiwan particularly friendly to foreign investors. It is wary of foreign talent in mergers and acquisitions, in exchange controls, and in tax regimes. The gap between ourselves and Singapore, Hong Kong and other free economies is considerable. Following transformation, these economies will be our main competitors. If public attitudes on Taiwan fail to keep pace with the times, even the best policies cannot replicate Taiwan's economic miracle.


社論－因應大陸興起 台灣需要4個革命
2015年04月08日 04:10 主筆室

中央研究院院士朱雲漢新作《高思在雲》發人深省，他大膽指出，18世紀以來西方主導世界的格局已經改變，以中國為首的非西方世界正迅猛興起，台灣如何面對大格局的變化非常重要。從這個角度觀察近日朝野陷入對峙的應否加入亞投行問題，其實已經不是重點，真正愛台灣，不但應該參與亞投行，還有太多舊觀念應該改變，實事必須推動。

平實而論，從台灣發展的角度來看，加入亞投行利遠大於弊。首先，金融是經濟發展的血脈，無庸置疑，未來亞投行將是亞洲經濟發展的重要平台之一，台灣成為創始會員國，能增加國際能見度、國際話語權，提高未來參與其他國際經貿組織的可能性。其次，東亞新興經濟體成長後市看漲，是全球經濟最重要的引擎，加入亞投行象徵我們積極加入亞洲經濟整合的意願，未來也才有機會共享經濟成長的果實。

更重要的是，亞投行名正言順支持大陸「一帶一路」國際戰略布局，藉由為沿線國家提供鐵公路、能源、電信、機場等專案融資的方式，重新建構出一個由大陸主導的國際經貿體系，兩者相輔相成，「大中華經濟圈」將可快速整合，這將對台灣經濟產生很大的助益。

不過，一旦中國興起，大中華經濟圈實現，台灣產業將直接面對來自大陸、港、澳、星等所有亞洲國家的競爭，工作機會也會面臨更嚴酷的外來競爭。台灣要看清現況，不能再有恃無恐、坐以待斃，更不能企圖閉關自守，淪為東亞經濟的邊陲，國民生活日漸凋敝。認清時勢，政府與民間應合作推動4個革命，改造台灣，讓台灣成為大中華經濟圈一顆獨特的珍珠。

第一、產業革命。在智慧機器人與物聯網的進步下，全球「工業4.0」的時代已經來了。簡單來說，「工業4.0」，並不只是使用智慧機器人取代勞動的工業或服務業，更重要的是還要結合物聯網的網路，以及大數據（Big Data）的整合分析，在「物聯網」系統分析下，最大程度地做到生產全自動化、個性化、彈性化、自我優化和提高生產資源效率，降低生產成本的全新生產方式。

這是對我國發展有利的大趨勢，電子電機業、精密機械業、資通訊，本來就是我國傳統強項，若能加以整合，輔以合宜的政策推動，鼓勵積極研發創新，台灣要搭上工業4.0的列車並不難，這是操之在我的契機。

第二、教育革命。台大名譽博士楊振寧認為「台灣學生『懶惰了』！」的言論引發爭論。我們認為台灣年輕人行不行，努力固然重要，思考力與創意更重要。在21世紀高度動態的環境中，應學習北歐國家，將每個學生都培養成具有獨立思考的創意人才。如何反轉死板的教育體制，認清每個人都是可造之材，落實適性教育，因材施教，讓每個兒童都能找到自己的道路，政府應再加把勁。

第三、文官革命。新加坡前總理李光耀逝世後掀起一波「台灣vs.新加坡」的比較風潮，其中，文官體制被許多專家詬病，指出這是台灣最應該要跟新加坡學習的地方。新加坡公務員錄取率只有2%，與台灣一樣競爭激烈，但不同是，錄取後，政府會讓這些已考取的準公務員先公費留學，學成之後才會到公部門工作，而且新加坡公務員的薪資變動與私人企業完全相同，競爭力與績效是加薪準則，公務員才有誘因主動把事情做好。反觀與台灣做越久領愈多的情況，沒有合宜的加薪升遷制度，當然養成遇事就躲的惡習。進入網路世代，政府決策權必須下放基層，讓政府官員尤其應能主動面對問題，快速反應民意，接受挑戰，解決困難。

藍綠政治角力已成為健全文官體制最大的阻力，只要政黨輪替，常務官通常也被迫下台，或下放閒職，政策缺乏連續性，更造成文官人心惶惶，無法專心做事。兩黨都應反省，共同建立文官制度，讓文官有自尊、有信心可以好好做事，不介入政治，在政策上才能長遠規畫，帶領台灣轉型。

第四、觀念革命。台灣社會仍有許多觀念過於封閉，只要提到大陸，什麼都怕，什麼都不准，不准陸資、不准陸客、不准服貿、貨貿簽署，而這些都是南韓、新加坡等國張開雙手，歡迎都來不及的事，台灣卻是避之唯恐不及。除此之外，台灣對外資也不算友善，對外國人才充滿戒心，在企業併購、匯率管制、租稅環境等，都距離新加坡、香港等自由經貿國家有著不小差距，而這些國家又正是我們轉型後的主要競爭對手，台灣社會觀念若不與時俱進，只怕再好的政策也難以重現台灣經濟奇蹟。