Lai Ching-teh's Taiwan Independence Rhetoric Bodes Ill for Cross-Strait Relations

Lai Ching-teh's Taiwan Independence Rhetoric Bodes Ill for Cross-Strait Relations
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 2, 2015

Executive Summary: Given the current social atmosphere, Tsai Ing-wen is likely to win the presidential election, and the DPP and its allies are likely to win a majority of the seats in the Legislative Yuan. But Taiwan's external security and internal strength have both reached a 30 year low. The public must not demand ruling party change merely to vent its spleen. It must also demand that Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP tell them where they intend to lead the nation. Starting today, this newspaper will explore the matter of Taiwan's post 2016b survival and development. We hope that all parties will engage in rational debate. We look forward to the candidates debating each other. We hope that social cohesion and consensus will emerge from the debate.

Full Text Below:

Given the current social atmosphere, Tsai Ing-wen is likely to win the presidential election, and the DPP and its allies are likely to win a majority of the seats in the Legislative Yuan. But Taiwan's external security and internal strength have both reached a 30 year low. The public must not demand ruling party change merely to vent its spleen. It must also demand that Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP tell them where they intend to lead the nation. Starting today, this newspaper will explore the matter of Taiwan's post 2016b survival and development. We hope that all parties will engage in rational debate. We look forward to the candidates debating each other. We hope that social cohesion and consensus will emerge from the debate.

Tainan City mayor and DPP political star Lai Ching-teh is rumored to be under consideration for the vice presidency. The day before yesterday, Lai unequivocally told the Tainan City Council, "I advocate Taiwan independence". DPP leaders and DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen meanwhile, have been reassuring voters that they are committed to "maintaining the status quo", and "abiding by the ROC constitutional framework". They have been underscoring their support for the ROC National Day, the national flag. They have been reassuring the international community that they are committed to maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait. Lai Ching-teh's bombshell shined a spotlight on the DPP's fundamental nature. It ripped the carefully cultivated mask of moderation off the face of the party. It confirmed that if Tsai Ing-wen is elected and the Democratic Progressive Party acquires a majority in the Legislative Yuan, cross-Strait relations may be in serious trouble.

Lai Ching-teh's declaration that "I advocate Taiwan independence" was no slip of the tongue. Let us reconstruct the event. During interpolation, KMT Tainan City Councilor Wang Chia-chen confirmed that Lai Ching-teh visited the Mainland. The city government established a cross-Strait group. So far, everything was well and fine. But then Wang asked Lai how he viewed cross-Strait relations. Did Lai think in terms of "killing Zhu De and Mao Zedong"? Wang asked Lai Ching-teh to tell people where he stood. Wang said, if Lai truly wants Taiwan independence, why not get rid of the Chinese Communist Party? Why not say so out loud? Or was Lai hoping for cross-Strait reconciliation?

Confronted with Wang's question, Lai Ching-teh could have answered any number of ways. He could have recited Tsai Ing-wen's "maintaining the status quo" mantra. He could have equivocated, and made vague references to Taiwan centric ideals. He could have mentioned cross-Strait peace and the importance of reconciliation. After all, cross-Strait exchanges and peaceful development are conducive to the welfare of Tainan citizens. He could have said that Taiwan independence was not within the purview of the Tainan City government. Yet lo and behold, Lai Ching-teh rejected the more prudent choices. Instead, in a clear and firm voice, he declared that "I advocate Taiwan independence. My advocacy of Taiwan independence does not mean we must go to war. I think that [Mainland] China should respect the people of Taiwan and their conviction that Taiwan is a sovereign and independent nation."

From the perspective of sticking to one's beliefs, Lai Ching-teh could be considered courageous and responsible. But this sort of courage and responsibility raises an important question. Cross-Strait relations appear stable. But behind the DPP's superficially moderate rhetoric, cross-Strait relations are entering a danger zone. Or to invoke a term used by the Mainland media, the two sides are about to enter a new "crisis management period".

Lai Ching-teh's Taiwan independence rhetoric highlighted several problems. One. Lai Ching-teh has long been seen as Tsai Ing-wen's deputy, as a future cabinet member, or as a New Taipei City mayoral candidate. He will play a even more important role than he does today within the DPP. Lai Ching-teh was ingratiating himself with both newer and older generation Taiwan independence advocates. The word is that Lai's aides publicly thanked the KMT city councilor for asking the question. It enabled Lai to say what was on his mind. Lai Ching-teh is gradually making his way up the political ladder. The destructive effect he has hd upon cross-Strait relations is sure to increase.

Two. Lai Ching-teh's Taiwan independence rhetoric comes on the heels of his declining popularity. The Dengue fever epidemic continues to spread. It is difficult not to recall the Democratic Progressive Party's eight year long period of misrule. Taiwan independence and cross-Strait issues gave the DPP carte blanche. They enabled the DPP to manipulate Taiwan independence mob sentiment. Tsai Ing-wen may have given Taiwan independence a coat of whitewash. She may avoided mention of the Taiwan Independence Party Platform and Resolution for a Normal Nation. DPP advocacy of Taiwan independence may rise or fall with the political climate. But its fundamental nature has not changed. It has undermined domestic politics, but more importantly, it will undermine cross-Strait relations.

Even more important, is the DPP's response to Lai Ching-teh's statement. DPP insiders have pointed out that Lai Ching-teh declaration is the position long held by Lai and the party. "What Lai said is no different from what the party has been saying." This was not a case of Lai "putting his foot in his mouth". The Democratic Progressive Party has clearly endorsed Lai Ching-teh's remarks. DPP spokesman Cheng Yun-peng's official statement makes the DPP's position quite clear. Lai Ching-teh reaffirmed that "We are an independent and sovereign state called the Republic of China. This is the consensus within the party, and Mayor Lai is no exception." Cheng Yun-peng's explanation was important. First, the DPP expressed solidarity with Lai Ching-teh. Secondly, it made clear that the DPP's distorted definition of the "Republic of China" is merely a variation on Taiwan independence. Or, more accurately, it constitutes backdoor listing of Taiwan independence advocacy.

Lai Ching-teh's Taiwan independence rhetoric is even more direct and dangerous than Lai's remarks from last year. Lai mentioned Taiwan independence while visiting Fudan University in Shanghai on June 7. Some asked Lai about the DPP's Taiwan independence party platform. Lai said that for the public on Taiwan, "Taiwan independence is an overarching consensus". Lai said, "One can eliminate the DPP's Taiwan independence party platform, but one cannot eliminate the belief in Taiwan independence." Back then, Lai Ching-teh did not state his own position. This time Lai Ching-teh publicly declared that he is a "true green" political leader, and intends to be an important leader of the Democratic Progressive Party.

Lai Ching-teh openly declared his advocacy of Taiwan independence. The DPP responded by endorsing his remarks. This exposed the true face of DPP cross-Strait policy. This ripped away the mask Tsai Ing-wen created with her "Republic of China" rhetoric. But most importantly, it showed that a mere 100 days from election day, DPP leaders refuse to consider the Mainland's position and feelings. They care only about their personal political status as "true green political leaders" and the management of the Dengue fever crisis. Does such a party deserve the public trust?

Tsai Ing-wen's cross-Strait rhetoric may come across as moderate. But she refuses to establish a platform for pragmatic cross-Strait political dialogue. She is even less willing to recognize the 1992 Consensus, or abolish the Taiwan independence party platform. How can a political party that cares only about appearance and not substance, possibly warrant public trust?

賴清德台獨論是兩岸的凶兆

2015年10月02日 中國時報

就當前社會氛圍，蔡英文贏得總統大選、民進黨及其盟友囊括立法院多數席次，似乎已無懸念。但台灣外在安全環境與內部實力都處於30年最不利狀態，民眾不能只求政黨輪替的痛快，而不問蔡英文與民進黨要把國家帶往何方。本報今日起將就後2016台灣將面對的生存發展問題提出探究，盼帶動各方理性討論，更期待候選人相互辯論，從辯論中凝聚社會共識。

民進黨政治明星、傳聞中的副總統熱門人選、台南市長賴清德，前天在台南市議會表達了「我主張台灣獨立」的強烈聲音。另一方面，民進黨及民進黨總統候選人蔡英文卻反覆強調「維持現狀」、「遵循中華民國憲政架構」，凸顯中華民國國慶、國旗，並向國際社會保證將致力維護台海和平。賴清德的突兀呼喊，立即點明了民進黨的政治DNA，戳破了全黨刻意包裝的溫和形象，也證實了蔡英文當選後、尤其民進黨取得立法院多數席次後，兩岸關係陷入不可測風險的擔憂。

賴清德說「我主張台灣獨立」，並不是脫口而出，還原現場，是國民黨籍台南市議員王家貞在議會質詢，肯定賴清德到中國大陸訪問，市府成立兩岸小組，立意良好，但詢問賴清德是否想到兩岸就想到「殺豬拔毛」？王家貞並要求賴清德表態，如果真要台獨，想幹掉中國共產黨，直接說出來也沒關係，或是真的要兩岸和解？

面對王議員的質詢，賴清德可以有多種選擇，可沿襲蔡英文「維持現狀」說詞，其次是可以模糊的一方面談台灣主體的理想，另方面兼談兩岸和平、和解的重要，畢竟兩岸的交流與和平發展有利於台南市民、有利於台南市政，也可以以非市政問題為由迴避。令人意外的是，賴清德沒有做出比較穩健的選擇，反而清晰而堅定的表示：「我主張台灣獨立！我主張台灣獨立並沒有說主張一定要兵戎相向，我認為中國也應該要尊重台灣人民主張台灣是一個主權獨立的國家。」

從堅持自己的信念來說，賴清德是勇敢且負責的，但是他的勇敢與負責，卻提醒我們一個重要的課題：表面看似平穩的兩岸關係、表面看似溫和穩健的民進黨當前主張的背後，是兩岸關係即將進入高風險期，或者用對岸媒體的用語：台海兩岸隨時進入一個新的「危機管理期」的事實。

賴清德的台獨真言凸顯了幾個問題。首先，賴清德始終被視為蔡英文副手、未來重要閣員或是新北市長的人選，未來將在民進黨陣營中發揮比現在更重要、更關鍵的作用，賴清德的發言不無向新老獨派交心的意涵。據了解，賴的幕僚還公開感謝國民黨市議員的提問，讓賴可以表明心跡。看來隨著賴清德在政壇上的逐步爬升，他在兩岸關係上破壞作用想必更大。

其次，賴清德的台獨真言是在他聲望不斷下降，登革熱疫情持續蔓延的情況下流露的，很難不讓人聯想起過去民進黨執政8年時期，以台獨、兩岸議題為政治提款機，操作台獨民粹的政治文化。這也證實了即使蔡英文盡力粉飾台獨色彩與主張，迴避台獨黨綱和正常國家決議文的存在，但民進黨的台獨基因一定會隨著政情的起伏而不定期發作，不但牽動國內政局，更將會是兩岸關係動盪不安的重要因素。

更必須正視的問題，還在於民進黨對於賴清德發言的回應。民進黨黨內人士指出，賴清德的發言是他一貫立場，與黨的態度相同，「賴的說法跟黨沒有不同調，也不是『暴走』」，毫無疑問民進黨是替賴清德台獨真言背書。民進黨發言人鄭運鵬的正式說法是，民進黨的立場一直相當清楚，賴清德也是陳述他一貫論述，即「我們是主權獨立的國家，名字叫做中華民國，這是黨內一致的共識，賴市長也沒有例外。」鄭運鵬的說法很重要，首先，民進黨聲援賴清德的主張，其次，民進黨的中華民國論述就是台獨主張的變種，更精準的說，是台獨主張的借殼上市。

賴清德的台獨真言，比他去年6月7日赴上海復旦大學座談時，關於台獨的談話更為直接而危險。當時，賴清德回應在場有人質疑民進黨的台獨黨綱時表示，他所認識的台灣社會「台獨是極大共識」，「解決民進黨的台獨黨綱，沒有辦法解決台灣主張獨立的事實。」當時的賴清德並未闡述自己的立場，這次的賴清德卻是公開表態他要當正綠教主，而這一位賴清德，將是未來民進黨的重要領導人。

賴清德坦率表示主張台獨，加上民進黨的背書回應，除了凸顯民進黨兩岸主張的真相，戳破蔡英文中華民國論述的虛假以外，更重要的是表明，民進黨即使在選前一百多天這樣的關鍵時刻，他們的領袖與決策基本上都不願考慮大陸的立場底線與感情感受，只在乎個人的政治地位（正綠教主）與政治危機處理（登革熱疫情），這樣的政黨豈能信賴？

這一段時間以來，蔡英文在展現兩岸政策的「溫和穩健」上做足姿態，卻始終不願意務實的搭建兩岸溝通政治基礎的對話平台，更遑論認同九二共識、廢除台獨黨綱，只做表面工夫的政黨，豈值得人們信賴與支持？