Monday, June 27, 2016

If Business No Longer Trusts the Government, Can the Economy Survive?

If Business No Longer Trusts the Government, Can the Economy Survive? 
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
June 28, 2016

Executive Summary: We hope all sectors of society, including labor organizations, will remain calm. We hope they will revert to normal, rational labor management negotiations. The old saw about "Labour and management are in the same boat" may be trite. It may sound too high-minded. But it is undeniably true. If labor demands more than management can afford, then businesses will fail, capital fill flee, and labor itself will suffer. The result will be a lose / lose / lose scenario for employers, employees, and the nation's economy.

Full Text Below:

The chain reaction touched off by the China Airlines flight attendants strike is accelerating. Seven major business organizations are blasting the government for reneging on its promise not to add seven more legal holidays. Yesterday they held a press conference to announce the "suspension of all negotiations with the government and labor organizations”. Labor organizations showed up to protest. Labor and management clashed head on. The situation spun out of control. Premier Lin Chuan mouthed platitudes, urging the two sides to “empathize with each the other's position”. Taiwan is riven by divisions between labor and management and between advocates and opponents of pension reform. The new government has made one complete policy about face after another. It has cavalierly reneged on its commitments. It has raised social antagonism to a new level. Ensuring a 1% growth rate this year was already difficult. Now the economic prospects are even gloomier.

Traditionally the business community has always supported the government. Seldom has it sung a different tune. This is the first time in history seven business organizations have issued a joint declaration suspending all negotiations with the government. This is unprecedented, and reveals the anxiety, even anger felt by entrepreneurs.

The business community has suspended negotiations with the government and labor organizations. Labor and management previously reached an agreement providing for two-day weekends and seven additional legal holidays that were only commemorative in nature, and which involved no down time. Ostensibly the business community is protesting the DPP government's abrogation of this agreement. In fact, legal holidays were merely the fuse. The business community was already uneasy about the deteriorating business environment. The legal holidays issue was merely the last straw.

If the issue were legal holidays, the government would not have a leg to stand on. First, the agreement was the result of negotiations between labor and management. The government promised to honor the result of the negotiations. Second, two day weekends, plus legal holidays, plus vacation days, adds up to 126 days. This is one day more than even military personnel, civil servants, and public school teachers receive. It is quite a lot, even in Asia. To the business community, adding seven more legal holidays was obviously going too far. The new government reneged on its policy commitment, merely because a few labor organizations protested and petitioned. Obviously the business community considered this unacceptable.

The more important reason however, is that its heart of hearts, the business community no longer trusts the new government. Ever since the DPP came to power, all its actions have worsened investor confidence and business incentives. President Tsai promised to improve the business environment by addressing the business community's “five needs”. Leave that aside for the moment. Consider instead the power supply, one of the issues the business community is most concerned with. The new government has apparently been hijacked by “nuclear free homeland” true believers, and finds itself impotent to respond. Now, when temperatures rise, the standby transfer capacity falls to 3%, and the shadow of power rationing looms. The new government's timetable for the replacement of nuclear energy with renewable energy, is nowhere to be found. The business community is deeply concerned about the cross-Strait “cold confrontation". The MTA and STA remain blocked. They watch helplessly as Taiwan's trade status is marginalized and export competitiveness are lost. How can the business community not be concerned, not to mention furious?

The EPD has even proclaimed that "Environmental protection will no longer be a neglected child bride".  It intends to terminate mineral rights, further discouraging investors already wary of EIAs and other obstacles to investment. Last week, during the China Airlines strike, public sector shareholders caved in to all of labor's demands. President Tsai took the lead, siding with labor. Leave aside the justifiability of the strike for a moment. This successful strike against a publicly owned business has terrified the business community. It is worried that strikes may spread, making survival for already troubled industries even harder.

The government must realize that only healthy economic development can provide provide new jobs and increase wages for young people. None of these objectives can be achieved without the business community. The most important concerns for the business community are sustainable growth and sustainable investment. Sustainable growth preserves existing jobs and economic returns. Increased investment ensures more increased employment opportunities and increased economic output.

The new government has proposed several industrial policies, including a "five creative industries plan”, and an "Asian Silicon Valley Plan". But if the domestic investment environment deteriorates, and the business community has no desire to invest, none of these proposals will succeed. The government cannot achieve these plans. even if it can raise the funds. Put plainly, the government lacks the talent and ability to achieve these goals. If the business community lacks confidence in the economy and the investment environment, industry will scale back, and private capital will evaporate. Taiwan's economy will suffer heavy losses, and its future will be jeopardized.

Seven major business groups have announced the suspension of all negotiations with the government and labor organizations. The government must consider honoring the original agreement. It must not complicate the matter further. Only this can resolve the short-term issues on the table.

Nor can it ignore the business community's unease with the government's policies. The two most critical policies are energy policy and cross-Strait policy. The government must offer credible, workable policies instead. When dealing with labor disputes, the government must remain resolute, and offer sound policies. Otherwise private investment will plummet.

We hope all sectors of society, including labor organizations, will remain calm. We hope they will revert to normal, rational labor management negotiations. The old saw about "Labour and management are in the same boat" may be trite. It may sound too high-minded. But it is undeniably true. If labor demands more than management can afford, then businesses will fail, capital fill flee, and labor itself will suffer. The result will be a lose / lose / lose scenario for employers, employees, and the nation's economy.

企業界不再信任政府 經濟還會好嗎
2016年06月28日 中國時報

華航空姐罷工事件連鎖效應方興未艾,7大工商團體反對政府片面毀棄協商共識,增加7天國定假日,昨日舉行「中止與政府、勞方所有協商」記者會,工運團體到場抗議,勞資火爆對槓,場面失控。行政院長林全蜻蜓點水呼籲雙方用同理心看待彼此立場!當前社會瀰漫勞資對抗、年金改革與反年金改革的對立情緒,新政府卻不斷出現髮夾彎決策,朝令夕改、毀棄承諾事件,社會對立情緒更形高張,今年經濟保1已經非常困難,現在對經濟前景更心所謂危。

傳統上工商界基於經營需要,向來支持政府,鮮少與政府唱反調;這是第一次7大工商團體一起對政府發出「中止所有協商」的聲音,不僅前所未見,亦可看出企業界的惶恐不安乃至於憤怒。

工商界決定中止與政府、勞方協商,表面原因是民進黨政府上台後,片面推翻當初全面周休二日後,7天國定假日「只紀念,不放假」的勞資協商共識。事實上,休假問題也只是一個導火線,讓原本已處於不安、擔心經營投資環境惡化的企業界,全面爆發。

如果單以休假政策的改變而言,坦白說,政府的立場確實有可議之處:一來原先的結論是經過勞資協商、政府承諾的結論;二來以休假天數而言,全面周休二日之後加上國定假日,休假天數已達126天,不但比軍公教多1天,在亞洲國家中也不算少,再增7天休假的國定假日,顯然對企業界而言,就已經是「太超過了」。新政府只是因為少數勞工團體的陳情抗議即翻轉政策承諾,更讓工商團體難以接受。

更重要的原因是,企業界心中深處已不再信任新政府。在企業界眼中,民進黨上台以來,幾乎所作所為都在惡化企業界的投資信心與經營意願。不談蔡總統承諾要為企業界解決5缺、改善經營環境,單就企業界最關心的供電問題而言,新政府顯然已被「廢核神主牌」綁架,似已無力解決。現在天氣一熱,電力備轉容量就降到3%,限電陰影揮之不去。新政府要以再生能源替代核電,完成時間卻遙遙無期。企業界最關心的兩岸關係也明顯陷入「冷對抗」,貨貿、服貿至今無解,眼見台灣貿易地位邊緣化,貨品出口競爭力流失,企業界能不憂心如焚嗎?

環保署更宣稱「環保不再是小媳婦」,要終止廠商的礦權,讓原本就困於環評等因素阻礙投資的業界,更不抱期望。上周華航罷工,公營的資方全盤退讓接受勞工條件,蔡總統率先表態挺罷工勞工,撇開罷工的合理性不談,這次公營企業成功罷工的案例,確實讓企業界心驚不已,企業界普遍擔心罷工的傳染性,會讓已陷困境的業者更難經營。

政府應該很清楚,要先有良好的經濟發展,才有更多新的就業崗位,年輕人的薪資才可能提升,這些目標沒有一項不能沒有企業界的努力。企業界對經濟最大的助益就是:永續經營、持續投資;企業持續經營可保住已有的就業機會與經濟成果,增加投資則是提供更多就業機會、拉高經濟產出。

新政府劃出「五大創新產業」、「亞洲矽谷計畫」等重大產業政策,如果企業界認為國內投資環境惡化、不願加碼投資,坦白說,毫無成功機會。因為絕無可能靠政府完成這些計畫,即使政府籌措到資金,說白點,政府也沒有這個人才與能力完成。如果沒有企業界的信任、對未來經濟與投資環境的信心,企業一起縮手讓民間投資減少,台灣不僅當期經濟就要受重創,未來前景更難看好。

面對這次7大工商團體聯合宣布與政府、勞方終止所有協商,我們建議政府首先必須考慮讓休假政策回到原來的協商結論,切勿再橫生枝節,這是解決短期及檯面上問題的必要作法。

除此之外,更不能忽視企業界對政策走向的不安與對政府的不信任。其中最關鍵的供電與兩岸兩大因素,政府必須提出可信、可行的政策與因應方案,日增的勞資紛爭,政府亦必須拿定態度、拿出政策,否則民間投資必將減少。

我們也希望勞工團體與社會各界應平息情緒,回歸理性與正常面對勞資彼此的權益。「勞資同在一條船」這句老話,雖然是老生常談,也有唱高調之嫌,但不能否認的是:事實就是如此。如果勞方的要求高過資方能承受的負擔,企業倒閉、資方出走外移,最後勞方也可能受害,結果是成為勞資雙方加上國家經濟「三輸」的結局。


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