Closer to China, Farther from America: The Philippines' Diplomatic Tango

Closer to China, Farther from America: 
The Philippines' Diplomatic Tango
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
October 22, 2016

Executive Summary: Diplomacy is like the tango. It involves steps to the rear and steps to the front. One must go with the flow. Duterte's diplomatic tango has enabled the Philippines to free itself from the clutches of nationalism and US influence. It has successfully positioned itself between two major powers, the United States and China. It has achieved the greatest possible gains in the Philippines' national interest. By contrast, Tsai Ing-wen's cross-Strait policy remains mired in controversy over the 1992 Consensus. Its only answer has been to cling to the United States and Japan, while trumpeting a flashy but hollow New Southern Strategy, merely to defy the Mainland. Contrast Duterte's pragmatic and balanced policy, with the folly of Tsai Ing-wen's rigid and obtuse policy, which has led to a deadlock in the Taiwan Strait.

Full Text Below:

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte arrived in Mainland China in a far-reaching move to become “closer with China, and farther from America”. This was Duterte's first state visit after taking office. His first stop was Mainland China, clearly revealing his priorities. Five months ago, China and the Philippines were mired in the South China Sea arbitration case. Upon taking office, Duterte immediately changed the tone of the relationship, showing us how swiftly the Philippines could change its diplomatic stance.

Ice three feet thick is never the result of an overnight freeze. The Philippines has wanted to free itself from the clutches of the United States for some time. In the past however, it was trapped in America's strategic net, and unable to break free. When Duterte came to power, under the banner of populist reform, he saw the benefits that an economically rising Mainland China could bring to his nation. Naturally he was moved.

Duterte's visit is generally seen as the Philippines desire to distance itself from the United States and move closer to Mainland China. But at a deeper level, it is merely the result of the Philippines' quest for diplomatic independence.

In 1946, the Philippines gained its independence from the United States. Nevertheless the spectre of US influence hung over the Philippines. They Americans may have left, but they kept a large number of military bases. They continued using the Philippines as a forward outpost in the US-Soviet Cold War. The United States also cultivated a large number of pro-US politicians in the Philippines, who controlled Philippine politics. Most of the families were educated in the United States, and made the Philippines the ideal mouthpiece for the United States in Asia.

Upon first achieving independence, Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base became the chief source of economic and foreign exchange earnings for the Philippines. But over-reliance on US military consumption made the Philippines miss the East Asian economic express train during the 1980s. As a result, it remains backwards even today. With the end of the Cold War in 1990, the strategic value of the Philippines plummeted, and the US military withdrew, causing the nation's economy to collapse. Filipinos remember this clearly.

Five years ago, then President Aquino III attempted to shift attention away from domestic economic troubles. He attempted to catch the United States' “Pivot to Asia” express train. On the one hand, he incited nationalist fervor. On the other hand he sought United States backing on the front lines. He appealed the South China Sea case in the International Court of Arbitration. He worked hand in glove with the Japan military. He clashed with China on Huangyan Island. These moves brought Sino-Philippine relations to new lows.

The Philippine's may have won the South China Sea arbitration case. But its economy remained mired in recession. By contrast, other Southeast Asian nations have taken advantage of Mainland Chinese capital to carry out various infrastructure projects. The Philippines meanwhile, lost out on the Chinese economic dividend. This was when Duterte, a man who lacked nepotistic US backing, came to power. Duterte was determined to change the Philippines' lop-sided policy toward the United States, and adopt a more balanced foreign policy, one that would enable the Philippines to benefit from China's economic dividend, even as it remained under the US military umbrella.

Duterte may be an enfant terrible, but he is also a pragmatic politician. He knows the realities of geopolitics. He knows that the Philippines must make friends with its neighbor China. He knows the Philippines must not expect too much from America, situated as it is on the opposite shore of the Pacific Ocean. He understands American political realities. He knows the Philippines has only two warplanes. It cannot possibly wage war against China, which has 3000 warplanes. He is also a believer in capitalism. He knows that only the Chinese people will help the Philippines develop its economy. The Philippines was abandoned by the Americans in the past. This remains etched deeply in Filipinos' memories.

Duterte's visit to Mainland China, is akin to an ocean liner changing directions. In fact, relations between Mainland China and the Philippines have yet to take shape. Duterte's independent foreign policy remains under the influence of two factors, one domestic and one foreign. The first factor is political pressure from the United States. The US may not be happy with Duterte's pro-China policy, but it is pre-occupied with the presidential election and has no time to deal with him. Once the new government has been decided next year, the US may increase pressure on the Philippines, especially if Clinton, who preaches a "repivot to Asia" takes office.

The second factor is a nationalist backlash from inside the Philippines. Duterte's power is based on regional support from a majority of the public. He is relying on the popularity of his war on drugs and war on corruption, to silence the pro-American political dynasties that despise him. If his popular support collapses, a nationalist backlash will swiftly emerge.

Diplomacy is like the tango. It involves steps to the rear and steps to the front. One must go with the flow. Duterte's diplomatic tango has enabled the Philippines to free itself from the clutches of nationalism and US influence. It has successfully positioned itself between two major powers, the United States and China. It has achieved the greatest possible gains in the Philippines' national interest. By contrast, Tsai Ing-wen's cross-Strait policy remains mired in controversy over the 1992 Consensus. Its only answer has been to cling to the United States and Japan, while trumpeting a flashy but hollow New Southern Strategy, merely to defy the Mainland. Contrast Duterte's pragmatic and balanced policy, with the folly of Tsai Ing-wen's rigid and obtuse policy, which has led to a deadlock in the Taiwan Strait.

親中遠美：菲律賓的外交探戈
2016-10-22 聯合報

菲律賓總統杜特蒂到中國大陸訪問，進行其「親中遠美」政策。這是杜特蒂上台後首次出訪，第一站即選擇中國大陸，可見其目標甚明。五個月前，中菲兩國才在為南海仲裁案鬧到不可開交，杜特蒂上來後立刻換臉，讓我們見識到菲律賓外交板塊轉移之迅速。

冰凍三尺，非一日之寒。菲律賓想要「脫美」已久矣，只是過去長期被美式戰略的網絡所綁架，苦於無法掙脫。杜特蒂上台後，打著民粹和改革的大旗，看準經濟崛起的中國大陸可能為該國帶來的利益，自然有了轉向的動力。

杜特蒂此行，一般認為，這是菲國想要遠離美國、倒向中國的前奏。但說得更深刻些，這其實是菲律賓追求「獨立外交」的實現。

一九四六年，菲律賓脫離美國獨立後，美國影響力仍如鬼魅般地徘徊在菲律賓上空。美國人雖然離開，卻保留大量軍事基地，繼續把菲律賓當成美蘇冷戰的一個前沿。同時，美國也在菲國培養大量親美政客，掌控菲律賓政治的地方世族大多擁有留美背景，這使得菲律賓成為美國在亞洲的最佳代言人。

獨立之初，龐大的蘇比克灣及克拉克空軍基地，成為菲國主要的經濟和外匯收入來源；但過度仰賴美軍消費養分的結果，則讓該國錯過八○年代東亞經濟高度成長的列車，落後依舊。及至一九九○年冷戰結束之後，菲律賓的戰略價值一落千丈，美軍無情地撤離，這也讓該國經濟頓時陷入困境。對此，菲律賓人記憶猶新。

五年前，前總統艾奎諾三世為了轉移國內經濟蕭條的焦點，再次搭上美國重返亞洲的列車。他一方面鼓動國內的民族主義熱情，一方面在美國的撐腰下再度走上前線，不但向國際法院提出南海仲裁案，也和日本進行軍事合作，更與中國在黃岩島兵戎相見。這些舉措，讓中菲關係陷入空前的低潮。

菲律賓雖在南海仲裁案勝訴，其國內經濟卻陷入泥沼。反觀東南亞各國，卻搭上「一帶一路」的順風車，利用中國資金進行各項基礎建設，而菲律賓則失去中國的經濟紅利。此時，沒有美國裙帶瓜葛的杜特蒂上台，便想要改變過去菲國對美一面倒的政策，改採平衡的外交政策，讓菲律賓能夠享受中國大陸的經濟紅利，同時也能在美國軍事保護傘下得到安全。

杜特蒂雖然草莽，卻也是務實的政治家。他洞悉地緣政治，知道菲律賓要與近鄰中國交友，而無法奢望遠在太平洋彼岸的美國；他了解國際政治的現實，知道菲律賓只有兩架戰機，沒有本錢和三千架戰機的中國開戰；他也是資本主義信徒，知道只有中國人會幫助菲律賓發展經濟。過去，菲律賓被美國人拋棄的經驗，太刻骨銘心了。

杜特蒂這次訪中，只能說是大船轉向，中菲關係其實還未定錨。原因是，其自主外交政策，仍受兩項國內外因素影響。其一，是美國的政治壓力。美國雖不滿杜特蒂的親中政策，但由於美國正忙於總統大選，無暇他顧；俟明年新政府底定，特別是若鼓吹「重返亞洲」的希拉蕊．柯林頓上台，便可能擴大對菲律賓施壓。

其二，是菲律賓國內民族主義者的反撲。杜特蒂的執政基礎，主要靠地方廣大人民的支持，他現在挾著掃毒肅貪的高人氣，讓親美的政治世家敢怒不敢言。一旦他民意下滑，民族主義的反撲力量勢將迅速湧現。

外交就像跳探戈，舞步有進有退，要順勢而為。杜特蒂所譜的外交探戈，讓菲律賓擺脫民族主義窠臼及美國勢力的掌控，成功地周旋在美、中兩大之間，為菲國爭取最大的國家利益。反觀，蔡英文政府的兩岸政策，卻還困限在九二共識的泥沼，只能一面倒向美日，並以華而不實的新南向政策來對抗中國。兩相對照，杜特蒂的務實、平衡政策，即凸顯出蔡政府在兩岸僵局中的僵化和不智。