Wednesday, October 12, 2016

KMT-CCP Dialogue May Marginalize the DPP

KMT-CCP Dialogue May Marginalize the DPP
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
October 10, 2016

Executive Summary: The "Cross-Strait Peaceful Development Forum" and the "Hung Xi Summit" will focus on the substance of cross-Strait interaction. The results will be laid out for all to see. Does the green camp intend to do nothing except flap its gums, convene press conferences and hurl epithets, and insult summit participants, in order to win points with the Taiwan public? Does it have anything of value to contribute in terms of ideas and practices? If it does not, it will merely marginalize itself in future cross-Strait interactions.

Full Text Below:

The KMT-CCP Forum will convene in Beijing early next month. KMT Chairman Hung Hsiu-chu and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will also take part in a “Hung-Xi Summit”. Following the change in ruling parties, the DPP government refused to recognize the 1992 Consensus. Cross-Strait relations officially ended. Amidst the uncertainty, the KMT and the CCP fell back on channels established in 2005 by former KMT Chairman Lien Chan and former CCP Chairman Hu Jintao. They established a regular platform for party-to-party communications. They preserved the KMT-CCP Forum and high-level two-party talks. Their decision has a whole range of implications for cross-Strait relations.

After the Kuomintang lost power completely, regular communication channels between the KMT and CCP remained intact. This fact has great significance for the KMT. Following the election earlier this year, the Mainland considered the possibility of working with the DPP. It is now certain however, that Beijing will not be looking to the DPP, but will continue cooperating with the KMT. As far as the DPP government is concerned, the Mainland may not have made a complete break with the DPP. But contacts and dialogue that have already been disrupted will not be resumed. Is Tsai Ing-wen government sincere about "maintaining the status quo"? If it is, it must present its position on cross-Strait relations and reach an agreement with the Mainland. This is extremely difficult for both the DPP and Tsai Ying-wen.

For Beijing, the cross-Strait achievements of the past eight years were based on the 1992 Consensus, something agreed to by both sides. On the basis of the 1992 Consensus, Tsai Ing-wen expressed goodwill and sincerity in cross-Strait relations. But the real objectives of her government soon became clear. It was obvious the new government would never accept the 1992 Consensus. It would never clarify the nature of cross-Strait relations. Instead, it would cling to the US and distance itself from the Mainland. Its educational and cultural policies would stress on “de-Sinicization”. The status quo has already been changed. "Maintaining the status quo" is nothing more than a slogan. The Mainland has decided. The mutual trust that ensured peace in the Taiwan Strait since 2008 no longer exists.

As we have seen, over the past few months communications between the two cross-Strait entities have been interrupted. The number of Mainland tourists arriving on Taiwan has been halved. The number of Mainland students has been slashed. Taiwan has been shut out of the ICAO Conference. Cross-Strait communications and 5G cooperation meetings have changed. Will James Soong be permitted to attend the annual APEC conference? If he is, will he be permitted to interact with the Mainland? Beijing is making overtures to our diplomatic allies. Will they stay or leave? That remains to be seen. Even the "Republic of China" rhetoric trotted out by Tsai Ing-wen may be seen as a form of the "two states theory". If so, then mutual trust between the two sides has evaporated, and relations will revert to what they were during the Chen era. President Tsai's insistence that she is "not taking the old road" may not lead to zero sum game confrontation. But official and even quasi-official contacts remain frozen.

The promotion of the "Cross-Strait Peaceful Development Forum" shows that Beijing does not want cross-Strait interaction interrupted altogether. After all, cross-Strait political cooperation already enabled dialogue between Ma and Xi. Ending all interaction would be a pity. Maintaining a platform for KMT-CCP dialogue enables private sector cross-Strait contacts to remain warm. This is necessary. The KMT has become an opposition party. But as Taiwan's largest opposition force, it remains highly representative and influential. Hung Hsiu-chu and Xi Jinping will meet. In the short-term, this may not have much impact on cross-Strait relations. But it will encourage cohesion and unity. As long as KMT-CCP dialogue on peaceful relations between the two sides persists, the formalization of peaceful relations remains possible, and will win points for the KMT among the Taiwan public. After all, Taiwan's election system always offers the chance for a comeback the next time around.

The green camp will not be happy with this development. Its reaction will surprise no one. Belittlement, sarcasm, and McCarthyite political smears. The script will probably be little changed from eight years ago. Huang Kuo-chang of the New Power Party has lept forward and shouted, "The Kuomintang is colluding with the Communist Party to form a united front against Taiwan" and "The Kuomintang has learned nothing from its past failures". But these same accusations were leveled against the KMT eight years ago, during the Chen era. Today's attacks by the New Power Party pale next in comparison. Those attacks in 2008 failed to prevent a second change in ruling parties. Consider the matter quietly and calmly. Peaceful and stable exchanges between the two sides over the past eight years enabled direct flights, tourism, trade, cultural exchanges, participation in international activities, and even diplomacy. This was all made possible through step by step efforts. Now this may all come tumbling down. The ruling DPP likes to imagine that its New Southern Strategy will prop up the nation. Can it really? Do voters really not understand the consequences?

The "Cross-Strait Peaceful Development Forum" and the "Hung Xi Summit" will focus on the substance of cross-Strait interaction. The results will be laid out for all to see. Does the green camp intend to do nothing except flap its gums, convene press conferences and hurl epithets, and insult summit participants, in order to win points with the Taiwan public? Does it have anything of value to contribute in terms of ideas and practices? If it does not, it will merely marginalize itself in future cross-Strait interactions.

國共對話 民進黨小心被邊緣化
2016/10/13 中國時報

國共論壇確定將於下月初在北京登場,國民黨主席洪秀柱與中共總書記習近平將同時舉行「洪習會」。政黨輪替後,民進黨政府拒絕接受「九二共識」,兩岸官方溝通管道全然中斷,當此兩岸關係高度不確定的狀態下,國共兩黨決定依照連戰前主席與胡錦濤前總書記於2005年達成「建立黨對黨定期溝通平台」的共識,繼續維持國共論壇及兩黨高層會談機制不變。此一決定對兩岸關係未來走向,具有多重意義。

在國民黨徹底失去政權後,國共定期溝通機制仍得以維繫,對國民黨實具有重要意義。今年初大選結束後,大陸不是沒有評估與民進黨建立合作關係的可能性。現在可以確定,北京不再對民進黨政府抱期待,未來仍將以國民黨為交往合作對象。對民進黨政府而言,與大陸即便不致走向全面決裂,但已經中斷的接觸與對話是不會再恢復了,蔡英文政府如果真心希望「維持現狀」,就必須在兩岸關係定位上提出論述,並與大陸達成協議。客觀而言,無論對民進黨、對蔡英文,這條路都坎坷難行!

對北京而言,過去8年的兩岸榮景,是建立在雙方都認同的「九二共識」基礎上,初始小英在兩岸關係定位上曾經展現一定的善意與誠意,大陸一度報以希望。但隨著施政目標與規畫逐漸明朗,顯示新政府既不接受「九二共識」,又不對兩岸關係的性質說清楚,對外關係上卻明顯親美日、疏離大陸,教育與文化政策上堅持「去中國」。「現狀」既已改變,「維持現狀」就只是口號,大陸認定,兩岸自2008年經由和平發展所締造的互信,已不復存在!

我們看到,過去幾個月兩會函電中斷、陸客減半、陸生減少、ICAO大會缺席、兩岸通訊搭橋及5G合作會議生變,這些恐怕都只是熱身!接下來,宋楚瑜能否順利出席APEC年會,縱然參加,與大陸能否互動、對北京頻送秋波的邦交國是否守得住等,恐怕都會是考驗!甚至連小英所提出的「中華民國論述」,也可能被解讀成「兩國論」,這意味兩岸的「互信」已消失,兩岸將逆退回扁政府年代。蔡總統堅持「不走對抗老路」,或許不致走上零和對抗,但官方乃至準官方接觸是全面凍結了!

「兩岸和平發展論壇」的推動,意味北京不願見兩岸善意互動所累積的成果全面中斷,畢竟兩岸治權合作已進入「馬習會」雙方領導人對話階段,就此廢棄停頓,真的非常可惜。繼續維持國共對話平台,讓兩岸在民間層次接觸上維持最大熱度,還是有一定程度的需要。國民黨雖淪為在野黨,但作為台灣最大在野勢力,還是有其代表性與影響力。洪秀柱與習近平會對話,對兩岸關係的短期發展或許沒有太多實質作用,但還是有凝聚團結的功能與意義。只要國共對話在兩岸和平關係制度化、法制化上能有具體進展,讓民眾有感,對國民黨重新執政就會加分。畢竟以台灣的選民結構與選舉機制,下一回合的政黨輪替,機會一直都在!

綠營不會樂見這種情勢發展,其反應大概也不會讓人意外,輕則冷嘲熱諷之,重則抹紅羞辱之,主要劇本與8年前比較,大概也不會有太多新意!時代力量的黃國昌,已迫不及待跳出來,說什麼「國民黨跟共產黨在統戰上是聯手」、「國民黨沒從過去的失敗得到教訓」云云。但這些指控早在8年前扁政府執政的年代,早就全套操演過,那時綠營政客與名嘴的語言暴力,較之今天的時代力量甚至還更超過,但也沒能阻止2008年的二度政黨輪替。平心靜氣地說,也就是因為有了過去8年兩岸和平穩定的交流,才有後續直航、觀光、經貿、文化、國際參與,乃至活路外交的榮景,這個局面是許多人一步一腳印慢慢搭建出來的,如今這一切均將可能化為烏有,執政的民進黨卻只想靠新南向政策撐起一切,試問真能全面承接取代嗎?其後果選民不會察覺嗎?

可預見「兩岸和平發展論壇」與洪習會,將聚焦討論兩岸互動的實質議題,成果也會一一端上檯面。綠營上下如果還是只會出張嘴,用記者會開罵、羞辱出席會議代表,對爭取台灣民眾實質利益,卻全無想法與做法,那麼在未來兩岸互動上,也將逐步陷入邊緣化境地!

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