China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 16, 2016
Executive Summary: Trump's election has dramatically changed the Asian-Pacific security environment. The US is likely to reduce its Asian-Pacific strategic presence. The TPP is DOA. The United States may reevaluate its relations with Asian-Pacific nations. These nations may also reevaluate their diplomatic strategies. Asian-Pacific opposition to Beijing will no longer be so marked. Mutual cooperation and win-win policies will become mainstream. ASEAN nations will not be the only ones to move closer to Mainland China. Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand and other nations will also be forced to move closer to Beijing. Taiwan must review the situation pragmatically, and respond to changes in the external environment. Above all we must abandon our ideological shackles. Relations with the US and Japan are important. But even more importantly we must get along with the Mainland.
Donald Trump's policies conform to public opinion. The Tsai Ying-wen government bet on the wrong horse, and is now frightened out of its mind. It hopes the United States will honor its "Six Assurances". It hopes that a Trump Cabinet and its Republican friends will continue to support Taiwan. Frank Hsieh put it bluntly. The moment the United States withdraws from Asia, a crisis will erupt. Trump's presidency may well lead to an Asian crisis. According to Hsieh, Taiwan and Japan must cooperate more closely. An Asian crisis may or may not erupt. The real crisis is the mentality behind the DPP government's reaction.
Trump is a political novice. He has no political experience whatsoever. He thinks like an entrepreneur, and says whatever is on his mind. Pundits are finding it difficult to fathom his behavior. Campaign rhetoric is not the same as practical policy after a candidate has assumed office. But Trump's isolationism will not change. He lacks a detailed understanding of Asian-Pacific security situation. Upon taking office he will change Obama's policy path. Taiwan's international plight will worsen.
For Trump, domestic concerns take precedence over foreign concerns. Most important are the economy and unemployment. In order to avoid conflict in the South China Sea, Trump has not ruled out a timely olive branch to Beijing, and a joint quest for stability on the Korean Peninsula. When Trump telephoned President Xi Jinping, he praised China, saying "China is a great and important country". He adopted a soft approach, and urged cooperation between the United States and China for mutual benefit and win-win.
Trump is contemptuous of Obama's Asian-Pacific rebalancing strategy. He wants allies to bear the cost of their own defense. Japan and South Korea would bear the brunt of these expenses. Mr Abe has publicly refused to pay the full amount the US military is spending in Japan. Park Geun-hye is caught up in the Choi-gate scandal, and unable to deploy the THAAD anti-missile system. US military intervention in Asian-Pacific affairs is less and less likely. A strategic vacuum in East Asia will increase Mainland China's influence dramatically.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), one of the three pillars of Asia-Pacific rebalancing, has failed. The US war on terror at the beginning of the century provided Mainland China with new strategic opportunities. It is once again free to pursue these opportunities. Trump is eager to resume trade negotiations. Beijing can use the opportunity to establish a multilateral trade regime for the "Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area" (FTAAP), covering TPP and RCEP member countries. Beijing's influence in global economic governance will increase dramatically. Taipei will be increasingly marginalized in the Asian-Pacific region. Obama refused to become one of the 57 founding members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). During the election, a Trump senior adviser criticized this decision as a strategic blunder. AIIB president Jin Liqun recently claimed that once Trump is in the White House next year, he may join the AIIB. The trend is clear.
Relations between Taipei and Washington, between Beijing and Washington, and between Taipei and Beijing have long been closely linked. The Tsai administration has neglected cross-Strait relations and put Taiwan's security in the hands of the United States. During Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign, he expressed his desire to restore diplomatic relations with Taiwan. After he was elected however, he signed the August 17 Communiqué with Beijing which seriously undermined Taipei's position. During Bill Clinton's election campaign, he blasted Mainland China's human rights record. After he was elected however, he helped Mainland China gain WTO membership. George W. Bush characterized Mainland China as a "rival" and publicly declared his obligation to defend Taiwan. After he was elected however, he praised Beijing as "great" and supported one China and opposed Taiwan independence.
Barack Obama called himself a friend of Taiwan. But when Taiwan sought to attend the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and Interpol annual meetings, Obama was all talk and no substance. Trump is a businessman committed to realism. Policies must be pragmatic. Taiwan is merely the United States' strategic pawn. Of course it is going to be relegated to the status of a bargaining chip in the United States' national interest.
"Abandoning Taiwan" may not be the mainstream view in American politics. But that does not mean it will not become that with changes in the larger picture. After President Carter established diplomatic relations with Beijing, calls to abandon Taiwan became louder. Pressure on Taiwan to negotiate with the Mainland forced then Premier Sun Yun-hsien to declare "Never fear to negotiate, but never negotiate out of fear". The DPP party and DPP government must not underestimate Trump's decision-making style. Republican think tanks support US arms sales to Taiwan. But is this an indicator of goodwill, or a sign that the United States is about to abandon Taiwan? Taiwan must be cautious. Is the purchase of advanced weaponry the only way to ensure Taiwan's security? How can one maintain cross-Strait peace and mutually beneficial exchanges? That is the real question.
The United States under a Trump administration can no longer be relied upon. Unilateral reliance on Japan is even more dangerous. Taiwan fishermen have lost their traditional fishing grounds. Taiwan fishing boats have been seized by the Japanese government. Nobuo Kishi is the younger brother of Shinzo Abe. He met with the Tsai government behind closed doors.
In utter disregard for the health of the people of Taiwan, he pressured the Tsai government into lifting the ban on food imports from the nuclear disaster area. This makes people wonder just what sort of quid pro quo deals were struck.
Tsai's loyalty to Japan has not improved Japan's treatment of Taiwan. Masaru Igawahara, Deputy Consul-General of Japan in Hong Kong, made clear that Japan's Taiwan policy will not change. No breakthroughs are in the offing. Igawahara said peace and stability in cross-Strait relations will help relations between Japan and the Mainland, as well as relations between Japan and Taiwan. The Tsai government's obsession with confrontation, he said, actually puts Taiwan at risk.
Trump's election has dramatically changed the Asian-Pacific security environment. The US is likely to reduce its Asian-Pacific strategic presence. The TPP is DOA. The United States may reevaluate its relations with Asian-Pacific nations. These nations may also reevaluate their diplomatic strategies. Asian-Pacific opposition to Beijing will no longer be so marked. Mutual cooperation and win-win policies will become mainstream. ASEAN nations will not be the only ones to move closer to Mainland China. Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand and other nations will also be forced to move closer to Beijing.
Taiwan must review the situation pragmatically, and respond to changes in the external environment. Above all we must abandon our ideological shackles. Relations with the US and Japan are important. But even more importantly we must get along with the Mainland.
美日都不可靠 台灣當自立自強
2016/11/16 中國時報
川普政策走向眾說紛紜，押錯寶的蔡英文政府似驚魂未定，但仍堅信美國將信守對台「六項保證」，並寄望川普內閣及共和黨友台人士繼續支持台灣；謝長廷更直言，美國一旦撤離亞洲，將是亞洲的危機，川普上台危機可能成真，台、日應加強合作。亞洲危機未必實現，從民進黨政府初步反應呈現的心態，才是台灣的危機。
川普是政治素人，沒有任何政治歷練，加上企業家的思維和言語暴衝的個性，外界確實難以捉摸其行為模式。競選語言與施政後的政策走向會有落差，但川普主張孤立主義不會改變，對亞太安全情勢的認識更是淺薄，就任後勢必會調整歐巴馬的路線，台灣外在環境較以往將更加嚴峻。
川普施政先內而外，首重經濟與就業，為求避免南海問題與中國升高衝突和對立，不排除會適時向北京遞出橄欖枝，共尋朝鮮半島的安定。他與大陸國家主席習近平通電話時就稱讚「中國是偉大和重要的國家」，擺出樂見美、中合作與實現互利共贏的軟姿態。
川普蔑視歐巴馬的亞太再平衡戰略，要求盟邦自行承擔防衛經費，日、韓首當其衝。安倍晉三已公開拒絕全額負擔駐日美軍支出；陷入「閨密事件」風暴的朴槿惠更不可能承接部署「薩德」反導系統的所有經費，美國未來減少軍事介入亞太事務恐會成真。東亞一旦出現戰略真空，中國的影響力自然會大幅擴增。
亞太再平衡三大支柱之一的《跨太平洋夥伴協定》（TPP）已宣告失敗，中國繼本世紀初美國反恐戰爭後，再一次逢戰略發展新機遇。面對川普殷切期盼重啟貿易談判，北京若趁勢提出建構「亞太自由貿易區」（FTAAP）的多邊貿易機制，涵蓋TPP與《區域全面經濟夥伴協定》（RCEP）的成員國，屆時中國在全球經濟治理的話語權將大幅躍升，台灣在亞太的定位將更加被邊緣化。選舉期間，川普的高級顧問批評歐巴馬反對有57個創始成員國的亞投行是「戰略錯誤」，亞投行行長金立群最近更聲稱，川普明年入主白宮後可能考慮加入亞投行，已透露趨勢。
台、美關係與中、美及兩岸關係向來密切連動，蔡政府疏於經營兩岸關係，把台灣安全寄託於美國，絕非智慧的選擇。殷鑑不遠，當年雷根總統選前表示要與台灣恢復邦交，選後就與北京簽署《八一七公報》，傷害台灣至深；柯林頓總統選舉時重批中國人權，選後促成中國加入世貿組織；小布希總統選前視中國為「競爭敵手」且公開宣稱有義務保衛台灣，選後卻以「偉大」讚美北京，支持一中、反對台獨。
歐巴馬堪稱友台的美國總統，但對台灣參加國際民航組織（ICAO）及國際刑警組織（Interpol）年會的問題上，同樣口惠而實不至。川普是生意人講求現實，政策必然務實，台灣是美國的戰略棋子，當然也會成為美國爭取國家利益的交易籌碼。
「棄台論」雖非美國政界主流想法，但並不意味不會隨著環境變遷而發酵。卡特總統任內與北京建交後，棄台論在美國甚囂塵上，繼而敦促台灣與大陸談判，逼使當時的行政院長孫運璿以「絕不恐懼談判，但絕不在恐懼中談判」回應美方壓力，民進黨政府千萬不可小覷川普的決策風格。共和黨智庫支持美、台軍售是善意表態，或是美國棄台的前兆，必須謹慎對之。購買先進武器是否為確保台灣安全的唯一路徑？如何維繫兩岸和平互惠關係，恐怕才是正本清源之道。
川普主政下的美國不再可靠，若因此單方面倒向日本，恐更加危險。蔡英文上任後，將沖之鳥礁去「礁」化，台灣漁民失去傳統漁場，坐視日本公務船強行扣押台灣漁船；閉門會見來訪的安倍晉三之弟岸信夫；無視台灣民眾健康，欲強行解禁日本核災區食品進口等，都令人質疑其中的暗盤交易。
蔡政府對日本的表忠，並不會產生正面效果。日本駐港首席領事井川原賢就明言：日、台關係仍在框架內，日本對台政策不會有變化，也無「突破性」的計畫。日人井川都認為，兩岸關係的和平與穩定有助於中、日關係和日、台關係發展，蔡政府卻執迷對抗，豈非置台灣安全於險境。
亞太安全環境因川普上台而產生劇烈變動，美國的亞太戰略收縮可以預期，TPP解體後，美國可能重整與亞太國家關係，各國勢必也會重新調整外交戰略。當亞太對抗北京的氛圍不再明顯，互惠合作、共贏政策成為主流，不僅東協國家會逐漸向中國靠攏，日、韓、澳、紐等國也會被迫對北京示好。
台灣必須審時度勢，務實因應外在環境變化，首先要拋開意識型態桎梏，美、日關係固然重要，但更要與大陸好好相處。
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