Sunday, December 18, 2016

PLA Air Force Planes Circle Taiwan: Do Not Respond With Frivolity

PLA Air Force Planes Circle Taiwan: Do Not Respond With Frivolity 
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
December 17, 2016

Executive Summary: PLA Air Force planes circled Taiwan as a symbolic gesture. They were saber rattling. But tension between the US and China will turn Taiwan into a front line where the two sides clash. If we refuse to understand that we are merely a pawn, but instead self-righteously imagine that we enjoy leverage, and pat ourselves on the back, we can only be described as stupid beyond belief.

Full Text Below:

Last week, four PLA Air Force bombers and electronic reconnaissance planes flew through the Miyako Strait into the western Pacific Ocean. They proceed southward through the Bashi Channel, then flew westward back to the Mainland. They set a record by circling Taiwan twice in two weeks. Defense Minister Feng Shi-kuan said the PLA may increase the frequency of such flights in the future. The PLA may even circle Taiwan once a month. ROC military officials think the PLA Air Force may even use tankers, so that fighters can accompany them for the entire duration of the flight.

Beginning in 2013, PLA Air Force planes have been patrolling the first island chain, from the northern end of Taiwan to the southern end, on a regular basis. This time the PLA planes changed the way they flew. They did not return the way they came. The planes took off from the south, and returned in the north. They took off from the north, and returned in the south. From a military training perspective, this was nothing new. Bombers and electronic reconnaissance aircraft are big and slow. In the event of war, unless ROC military air defense systems have disintegrated, PLA Air Force planes, even accompanied by tankers and fighters, will not be able to come and go freely from the east. In any event, taking a different route back after circling Taiwan, has gotten the attention of Taipei, Washington, and Tokyo.

Since taking office, the Tsai government has refused to recognize the 1992 Consensus. This has changed cross-Strait relations. Following the Trump Tsai phone call, Trump and his administration have challenged the One China principle repeatedly. Therefore Beijing's preemptive saber rattling is not hard to understand. The saber rattling has gotten peoples' attention, without the need to issue any actual threats. Its intent is psychological intimidation.

The PLA Air Force's long range flights, cannot avoid entering Japan's air defense identification zone. An ADIZ is not sovereign airspace. It has no legal status. It is international airspace. An ADIZ however, is an international demarcation of one's “turf”. It is a show of one's hand in a test of strength. If military aircraft enter one's ADIZ without a response, one will be seen as a paper tiger. Therefore, as long as PLA Air Force planes fly through the Miyako Strait, the Japanese must dispatch interceptors to greet them. This may exhaust Japanese interceptors dispatched from the Ryukyus, but they must assert their claim over this airspace.

Taipei has a much smaller ADIZ. Therefore it has no problem with intrusions. But if cross-Strait relations continue to deteriorate, CCP confidence in the prospect of a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan issue might weaken. The situation in the Western Pacific could become tense due to the collision between Washington and Beijing. Flights around Taiwan will become more frequent. They will come closer and closer. They may even enter out ADIZ in the name of freedom of navigation in international airspace. The Ministry of Defense has declared that if PLA Air Force planes enter our ADIZ, we “will not fear, will not evade, will not show weakness". He also declared that if PLA planes must ditch at sea, we will abide by humanitarian principles. But just how should these "three noes" be implemented? In the event of an accident, how should the crisis be resolved? Agencies charged with national security must be thoroughly briefed. They should establish a tacit agreement among all parties, even Beijing.

Militarily speaking, "secret weapons" and "saber rattling" should be used each in their own turn. One must not be too quick to back down. But neither should one prematurely reveal one's trump cards. This time, agencies charged with national security made public for the first time information regarding the PLA Air Force flights around Taiwan. This was a marked change from its past secrecy. They seized the propaganda initiative. They reminded people of the possible consequences. But they must also guard against pride and complacency. When they publicly disclose such information, they reveal their own hand as well. They must not repeat Lee Teng-hui's blunder. During the Taiwan Strait missile crisis, he revealed that the PLA was "merely firing blanks". They must not repeat Chen Shui-bian's blunder, when he revealed knowledge of PLA missile locations in Fujian. By doing so, he blew the cover of ROC agents on the Mainland. Past experience suggests that the military is conservative and patient. But Feng Shi-kuan told the Legislative Yuan he was confident we could shoot down any PLA planes that entered our ADIZ". We must be wary of such unguarded outbursts.

Even more worrying, some high-level government aides shot off their mouths pandering to deep green voters. They said "We locked on to PLA military aircraft, forcing them to depart". On top such ignorant boasts about military affairs, they red-baited the former Ma government, accusing it of being afraid to say anything. In particular, after Trump questioned the One China Principle, the Green Camp could barely contain itself. It was prepared to lead an "Anti-China Jihad", and brushed aside all concern for Taiwan's security. Given their state of mind, how can there be any national security?

PLA Air Force planes circled Taiwan as a symbolic gesture. They were saber rattling. But tension between the US and China will turn Taiwan into a front line where the two sides clash. If we refuse to understand that we are merely a pawn, but instead self-righteously imagine that we enjoy leverage, and pat ourselves on the back, we can only be described as stupid beyond belief.

共機繞台敲山震虎,勿輕佻以對
2016-12-17 聯合報

上周中共空軍四架轟炸機與電偵機,飛越宮古水道進入西太平洋,再南下經巴士海峽西飛大陸,創下半月內兩度「繞台飛行」的紀錄。國防部長馮世寬坦承,不排除未來共軍提高訓練頻率,甚至可能每月繞台一次。軍方官員也研判,共機日後甚至將帶上空中加油機,戰鬥機便可全程伴飛。

二○一三年起,共機分從台灣南北兩端飛出第一島鏈,已成常態。這次,解放軍將「原路去回」改為「南出北回」與「北出南回」的繞行,就軍事演訓角度,並無創新之處。且轟炸機與電偵機都是大型慢速機,一旦爆發戰事,除非我國軍防空體系瓦解,否則,就算有加油機與戰鬥機隨行,也不可能堂皇進出台灣東方。但無論如何,較之原路去回,「共機繞台一周」對台灣甚至美、日在宣傳層面都有一定衝擊。

蔡政府上任以來,因拒絕承認九二共識,使得兩岸關係丕變。加以川蔡通話後,川普及其執政團隊數度挑戰一中原則,因此北京提前施展「敲山震虎」動作,不難理解。「敲山震虎」之舉,既製造聲勢,卻無強烈實質敵對之意,意在心理威嚇。

共機遠海長航的路線,必然飛越日本防空識別區。但識別區並非領空,不具法理地位,仍然是國際空域。一個國家公告劃設防空識別區,一方面是對外宣示地盤,另方面卻也是將自身實力端上檯面與他人「梭哈」。如果劃了識別區,卻又仍憑他國軍機任意去來,本身毫無因應動作,就會被看成紙老虎。因此,只要共機飛臨宮古水道,日方明知無權阻攔,仍必派出戰機近距離監控,儘管駐琉球戰機疲於奔命,也要宣示自己在這片空域的話語權。

對我方而言,因防空識別區當初劃設範圍較小,尚無遭共機闖入問題。但是,如果兩岸關係持續低迷,中共對和平解決台灣問題的信心減弱,西太平洋局勢又因華府與北京的權力碰撞而益加緊繃,共機繞飛台灣的機率將愈來愈頻繁,航路也會愈來愈貼近,甚至以國際空域自由航行為名切入我方防空識別區。國防部宣稱,共機若進入我識別區,我將「不畏懼、不迴避、不示弱」;也稱共機如在外海故障,將依人道原則救援。但「三不」究竟要如何實際操作,一旦發生意外要如何化解危機,國安單位須有周全思量,甚至設法與包括北京在內的各方建立默契。

在軍事上,「藏鋒」與「示威」應交互為用;在「勢」不可輕易示弱,在「實」不可輕易讓人看穿底牌。這次,國安單位第一時間決定公布共軍繞台飛行訊息,一改以往諱莫如深的態度,固在宣傳上搶得先機,也有提醒國人憂患意識的效果。然而,在博得好評之餘,須避免得意忘形;在公開與私下透露消息之時,切莫暴露自己對敵情掌握能力的高低,以免重演李登輝宣稱台海飛彈危機「只是啞彈」,及陳水扁細數福建飛彈陣地部署狀況,導致國軍情蒐系統遭到重創的覆轍。從過往經驗看來,軍方個性保守,不致太過躁進;但馮世寬在立院宣稱「有信心擊落進入防空識別區共機」,暴露其口無遮攔,必須警惕。

更值得憂心的,是政府高層某些狂熱幕僚忙不迭地放話,除迎合深綠選民口味,講出「我方鎖定中國軍機迫使離去」這種軍事無知的大話,更將公布共軍演訓套上「馬政府過去都不敢講」的紅帽。尤其,在川普公開嗆聲一中原則後,綠營興奮之情溢於言表,一副要毛遂自薦扮演「反中聖戰」支點之姿,完全不以台灣安全為慮。這種心態,究竟置國家安全於何地?

共機繞台雖只是「敲山震虎」的象徵性動作,卻可看出:美中關係緊張,台灣必成為雙方交鋒之前線,首當其衝。如果我們不能明白自己只是「棋子」,卻還自以為是「槓桿」,而樂在其中,只能說是愚不可及。

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