Monday, December 5, 2016

Trump Intends to Change Sino-US Relations: Taiwan Must Beware

Trump Intends to Change Sino-US Relations: Taiwan Must Beware
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
December 6, 2016

Executive Summary: How should Taiwan deal with the new Sino-US strategic scenario after Trump takes office? This question will severely test the Tsai government's wisdom. Trump's national security team dispatched Henry Kissinger to Beijing, while simultaneously publicizing Tsai Ing-wen's phone call to Trump online. Trump placed emphasis on the "democratically elected president of Taiwan", then Tweeted about Mainland China, saying that China did not report its actions to the United States in advance. This shows that Trump's little drama was carefully orchestrated, not improvised. The Tsai government must realize that the new Trump government is a savvy decision-maker. The Tsai government must plan ahead. It must adopt a flexible "friendly with the US, at peace with the Mainland” strategy. Otherwise Taiwan may not be able to weather the Trump political storm.

Full Text Below:

US President-elect Donald Trump calls himself an "America Firster". Tsai Ing-wen's phone call to Trump made waves in the Asian-Pacific region. Trump Tweeted that when Mainland China acted, it did not consult with the United States first, therefore why must he report to Mainland China before picking up the phone? The international media is saying that Trump deliberately provoked Mainland China, and that the US and Mainland China may begin a "new cold war". It is saying that Trump deliberately poured gasoline on the fire regarding bilateral economic and trade relations, investments, and the conflict in the South China Sea, threatening peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

The outgoing Obama administration immediately declared that the one China policy stance of the US, which is based on the "one law and three communiques", remains unchanged. But once Trump comes to power, will he change China policy? That prospect has many worried. How should Taiwan deal with the new and changing situation? Considerable brainstorming will be needed to negotiate this passage.

Trump's national security adviser, Michael Flynn, noted that the United States' biggest advantage is that world leaders do not know what it intends to do. Flynn's mentality reflects the new government's "America First" strategic posture. It sees China as a competitor. Before coming to power, Flynn is challenging Mainland China over the Taiwan issue, RMB exchange rates, trade and investment barriers, South China Sea military expansion, and other issues. He is accumulating bargaining chips for future negotiations. At the same time, the new government will give priority to US economic, trade and security interests. It will use tax cuts to return 2 trillion dollars in multinational capital to the US, and impose heavy taxes on US companies who move their manufacturing plants overseas, as part of his "Make America Great Again" goal.

On the matter of international security, Trump does not want America to remain the "world's policeman". He wants allies to share the cost of their own security. He wants to use flexible strategies to ensure Asian-Pacific “Managable Instability”. An Asian-Pacific region arms race would enable the United States to increase US arms exports and reduce its trade deficit. It would enable the US to once again become a safe haven for Asian-Pacific capital, technology, and personnel. It would make United States issued bonds and real estate more popular, and accelerate Trump's "America First" industrial recovery plan, by injecting huge amounts of capital and talent.

The new government will also seek to win over Russian President Putin, reshape the US-Russian strategic cooperation framework, in order to apply pressure on Mainland China. This would enable the United States to gain a strategic advantage when negotiating with Mainland China. The Trump government's strategic goal is to make the United States the world's most secure and prosperous place. This will make the world's capital, technology, and talent flock to the United States, providing Americans with more high-quality job opportunities.

Sino-US relations are in a highly indeterminate state. Taiwan is caught in the middle. It can choose to rely entirely on the United States. It can play along with the new Trump government's challenge to Mainland China. But this risks turning Taiwan into America's cannon fodder or America's pawn. Or Taiwan can choose to respond to Mainland President Xi Jinping's appeal to a "shared destiny". It can establish a new cross-Strait consensus that upholds one China. It can publicly reaffirm that people on both sides of the Strait belong to one China. It can even stress that the two sides can cooperate in building a democratic China. This would provide a way out of the cross-Strait impasse, and a way out for Taiwan as well.

The current disparity in the two sides' strength, coupled growing tensions between the US and Mainland China, have already done in the Tsai government's national security strategy. Does Tsai really believe that if the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have nothing to do with each other, that Taiwan can develop its economy through economic and trade interactions with the United States and Japan? That is simply impossible. Mainland China has become the world's second largest economy, Taiwan's largest trading partner, and the primary source of its trade surplus. Any US Expeditionary Force in the Western Pacific would face a PLA with a home court military advantage. It would no longer be assured of victory. Therefore, if Taiwan voluntarily forsakes the Mainland market, or even makes the Mainland its military enemy, the cost will be hard to bear. Moreover, the new Trump government strategic posture emphasize "America First". It will use Taiwan merely as a pawn or bargaining chip. Once it decides that the cost of using Taiwan is too high, it will adopt a quid pro quo trading strategy, and sell Taiwan out. Does the Tsai government really believe that once Trump becomes President of the United States, Sino-US rivalry will enable Taiwan to cozy up to the US and Japan and contain Mainland China? If she does, she is dreaming. War in the Taiwan Strait would only spell disaster for Taiwan's economy and security.

How should Taiwan deal with the new Sino-US strategic scenario after Trump takes office? This question will severely test the Tsai government's wisdom. Trump's national security team dispatched Henry Kissinger to Beijing, while simultaneously publicizing Tsai Ing-wen's phone call to Trump online. Trump placed emphasis on the "democratically elected president of Taiwan", then Tweeted about Mainland China, saying that China did not report its actions to the United States in advance. This shows that Trump's little drama was carefully orchestrated, not improvised. The Tsai government must realize that the new Trump government is a savvy decision-maker. The Tsai government must plan ahead. It must adopt a flexible "friendly with the US, at peace with the Mainland” strategy. Otherwise Taiwan may not be able to weather the Trump political storm.

川普意在翻轉中美關係 台灣要謹慎
2016/12/6 中國時報

美國總統當選人川普自稱是「美國優先」主義者,在「英川通話」掀起亞太新波瀾之際,他又在推特嗆聲中國亂搞也沒先問過美國,為什麼自己接個電話還要先報備。目前,國際主流媒體均以川普刻意觸怒中國為切入點,認為美中關係可能進入「新冷戰」時期。川普刻意在雙邊經貿、投資利益矛盾及南海議題火上澆油,為亞太地區和平穩定埋下火種。

即將卸任的歐巴馬政府立即宣示,美國基於「一法三公報」的一個中國政策立場不變。但川普上台後會不會改變對中國的政策,才是多數人關注的重點。台灣要如何應對山雨欲來的新變局,恐怕要多集思廣益,才能安然度過新風暴。

川普的國家安全顧問佛林指出,美國現在最大的優勢就是,世界各國領導人都搞不清楚美國準備怎麼做。佛林的心態正反映出川普新政府強調「美國優先」的決心與戰略布局方向,準備把中國當成競爭對象,在上台前就從台灣問題、人民幣匯率、貿易與投資壁壘,以及南海軍事擴張等議題,開始挑戰中國的底線,並為今後展開談判交易墊高籌碼。同時,川普新政府將以美國經貿與安全利益為優先考量,祭出減稅措施吸引2兆美元的跨國企業資金回流,並針對製造工廠外移的美國企業課徵重稅,以落實「讓美國再度強大」的目標。

在國際安全議題上,川普不想再當「世界警察」,準備要求盟國友邦增加分攤安全成本,並將運用細緻靈活策略,塑造亞太地區「可管理的不穩定」(Managable Instability),讓亞太各國展開軍備競賽,而美國不僅可以趁國際情勢動盪之際,增加美製武器出口以減少貿易赤字,更可以再度成為亞太資金、技術與人才的避風港,讓美國發行的公債與房地產成為搶手貨,並促使「美國優先」的製造業復興計畫獲得龐大資金與人才挹注,加速進行。

此外,川普新政府將積極拉攏俄羅斯總統普丁,重新發展美俄戰略合作架構,進而對中國形成新壓力,為美國與中國談判周旋時,取得新的國際戰略優勢地位。川普新政府的強國戰略目標,就是要打造美國成為世界最安全繁榮的地方,讓全世界的資金、技術與人才湧向美國,為美國人創造更多優質工作機會。

當中美關係將進入高度不確定狀態之際,台灣處在中美兩強夾縫中,一則可以選擇完全依賴美國,配合川普新政府挑戰中國的策略,但卻必須擔負淪為美國炮灰或馬前卒的風險。台灣亦可選擇回應大陸國家主席習近平的「命運共同體」思維,建立可以體現一中內涵的兩岸新共識,公開支持「兩岸人民同屬中華民族」的立場,甚至進一步強調兩岸可以合作建設「民主中國」,為台海兩岸主權對峙僵局解套,也為台灣找到新出路。

當前,兩岸綜合國力差距懸殊,加上美中關係恐趨向緊張,已讓蔡政府的國家安全戰略左支右絀。蔡政府若認為,兩岸不往來,台灣仍可透過美、日經貿互動發展經濟,這已不切實際,因為現今中國大陸已成為世界第二大經濟體,也是台灣最大的貿易夥伴與順差來源,而且美國遠征軍在西太平洋沿岸,面對共軍的主場優勢時,已不再擁有絕對勝算。所以,台灣若自絕於大陸市場,甚至在軍事上與大陸為敵,代價恐難承擔。更何況川普新政府強調「美國優先」的戰略布局,只會把台灣當成棋子或籌碼,一旦認為利用台灣的成本過高,恐會改採「交易策略」,用台灣換取對美國更有利的標的物。倘若蔡政府判斷川普上任美國總統後,中美競逐可以支撐台灣的「親美日、抗中」戰略主軸,一廂情願為美國圍堵中國,只怕會讓台海兵凶戰危,為台灣帶來經濟與安全的雙重災難。

對台灣而言,如何應對川普上台後的中美博弈新局,將嚴峻考驗蔡政府的能力與智慧。川普的國安團隊同時派出季辛吉訪問北京,並主動公布「英川通話」,強調「民主選舉產生的台灣總統」,隨後又在推特向中國嗆聲「中國亂搞也沒向美國報告」,這在在顯示川普的戲劇性演出經過精心設計,應非即興之作。蔡政府若不願正視川普新政府深沉精明的決策風格,並及早規畫「友美和中」的靈活策略因應新變局,台灣恐難逃川普風暴肆虐。

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